TV pundit Philip Swann predicts that Internet TV is the "next big thing." He doesn't say how big exactly, but he points to the Disney launch of Moviebeam and the Netflix/Tivo and SBC/Yahoo! partnerships as a sign that the entertainment industry, like it or not, is going IP.

He writes:

With Internet TV, television will go from being a convenience store to a
giant supermarket. The viewer will scan the aisles for interesting
programming, whether it's from a well-known network or a start-up TV
service based in someone's garage in Silicon Valley. Much like
today's World Wide Web, Internet TV will give an equal opportunity to
the big and the small. Of course, the established media will always
have an advantage due to marketing muscle and recognition factor.
But they will have to work harder to keep their spot in the viewer's
mind.

The emergence of podcasting sheds light on one path IPTV will take - with everyone getting into the home studio business. And as movie studios broaden their focus to global markets, there is going to be a lot more opportunity for local productions. But a more compelling force that Phillip hits on are the actual owners of the premium content -- the NBA, production houses, etc. They would certainly like another channel into the home.

And who's going to give them this channel? Well, everyone it seems. Although I suspect the cable companies maybe the least successful at providing an "unwalled TV garden." It will be very interesting to see what Ed Whitacre, CEO of SBC, will have to say at CES in 2005; I'll be there and I'll be taking notes.