I'm at CES right now and am going through the phone-book-sized exhibitor directory. If there is one immediate beneficiary of convergence, it's the Consumer Electronics Association. Thanks to the convergence of TV, radio, wireless, Internet, satellite, etc., this conference has 2,400+ exhibitors and 120,000+ attendees. Not too shabby.

I'm still not convinced that this show will be all that remarkable, but hope springs eternal. Here is what I would like to see over the next few days:

1. Ultra-Wideband breaks into the home (finally). This press release is a very good sign that UWB is going to make it into homes in 2005. Yes, this is about two years later than many people (including me) once predicted, but better late than never. The press release announces a partnership between Intellon and Freescale to run HDTV throughout the home using both HomePlug Powerline and UWB. This is a smart move and both of these guys need to do what they can right now to fend off higher-speed Wi-Fi. I also expect to see wireless USB in 2005, powered by UWB. This may be less glamorous, but it could ultimately make UWB ubiquitous.

2. Wi-Fi in every device. Okay, this won't happen in 2005, but I'm seeing good signs that it will happen. The Wi-Fi "grid" that is developing in offices, homes, airports, hotels, coffee shops, convention centers, hospitals, parks, libraries (you get the idea) will drive more and more device manufacturers to embed the technology, power consumption be damned. The key development is Wi-Fi within cellular phones. It's already happening and I expect more in 2005 - including that Wi-Fi-powered Blackberry.

3. Craig Barrett of Intel be a little more clear about what WiMAX is and, more important, what WiMAX is not. All these reporters (and a few carrier executives) need to be better educated about this technology. I firmly believe WiMAX will succeed, but we need to be realistic about its potential and its timeline.

4. Ed Whitacre at SBC says something signifiicant about his company's commitment to Wi-Fi. I expect him to talk more about TV and convergence, but am still hoping for a Wi-Fi announcement. I'm glad to see Ed here and am impressed at how aggressive SBC has been in 2004 regarding Wi-Fi and converged devices and service plans. I don't think everything they're doing will succeed, but they are rightly trying to graduate from raw Internet access to applications.

5. Finally, I hope to see VoIP move from "cheap long distance" to "next-gen telecoms." Vonage just passed the 400,000 subscriber mark (gaining 300,000 in 2004) but I suspect the bulk of these folks came onboard primarily to save money. Hey, so did I. But what's really exciting about VoIP are video and location-based applications. I hope to see more devices and service providers taking VoIP to the next level. SBC already is on its way...

Anyway, enough from me. On to the show...