About the authors
Russell Shaw is a specialist in mobile computing, telephony, networking and covers these fields regularly for numerous print and online publications. Russ writes the popular IP Telephony blog on ZDNet and contributes regularly to The Industry Standard blog as well. Author of seven books, Russ' latest book is Wireless Networking Made Easy.
John Yunker is president of Byte Level Research. He closely tracks emerging wireless technologies and their impact on consumers and carriers alike. Over the years he has written a number of major reports on technologies such as Wi-Fi, WiMAX and cellular technologies.
About this blog
Unwired studies emerging wireless technologies and how they complement and conflict with one another. Technologies covered include: Wi-Fi, WiMAX, Ultra-Wideband, Zigbee, EV-DO, UMTS, HSDPA and whatever else comes along.
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February 22, 2006
Posted by John Yunker
I keep getting emails from people having problems with their Treos, and -- trust me -- I feel your pain. My little 650 restarts for unknown reasons about once every couple days or so, just to keep my life interesting. I have 11 months left on my contract and then I'm done with this thing for good. I'm counting down the days.
So a few months back I added my name to a class action lawuit against Palm. I've never been part of a lawsuit before but I felt this one was worth it. The product was rushed to market and Palm has done an absolutely awful job of supporting it. If I had a dollar for every time this thing had reset itself for no apparent reason, I could have bought a dozen Treos (not that I would have).
And, judging but the emails I've received over the past year, I'm far from alone in the frustrated Treo-user department.
So, now for the update:
A few weeks ago I got a call from the law firm, I forget the name. They told me that the many pending lawsuits are being rolled into some super-lawsuit. I answered a few questions and that was all I heard.
If you want to add your name to the list, you can go to this site. I'm not sure if they're still taking names or the progress of the litigation. But when I learn more I'll share it.
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September 22, 2005
Posted by John Yunker
I'm not surprised to see a class action suit filed against Palm for their Treo 600 and 650 devices.
I bought a 650 earlier this year and as I documented here my initial experiences were anything but pleasant. Things did settle down since then, for the most part. Still, every few weeks the device will randomly restart on me. Call quality is generally poor. And, last week, I had to pop out the battery to restart the device because it completely died for some unknown reason.
I've already made up my mind to ditch Palm when my contract expires. By then I hope to see more devices supporting email access, which is really all I bought the Palm for anyway.
It's a real shame. I really did and still do want to love this device. It has such potential. I know Palm rushed these devices to market without testing them fully and we all have paid for their haste to make good quarterly numbers. But these sorts of things have a way of catching up with you and, even if the class action suit doesn't hurt Palm, the thousands of unhappy Palm users like me, out there spreading the word, certainly will.
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July 7, 2005
Posted by Russell Shaw
As cellular phone rates have lowered and access has become pervasive, the reasons for making a cell phone call have expanded from event-driven planning conversations to a kind of verbal, geo-locator service.
You see this geo-locator service use as soon as your plane lands, and the cell phones come out. Or, as school lets out for the day. Or, just for the heck of it, every half hour.
Or, if you live in a city with mass transit like I do, it isn't uncommon to see high-school and college students call their friends every third stop, advising them of their whereabouts.
Today, the geo-locator functionality of cell phones took on an amplified, if tragic meaning. As you probably know by now, there were a string of fatal subway and bus bombings in London. Given that they occurred in the morning rush hour, it would not be unfair to assume that hundreds of thousands of London commuters were in transit when the violence struck.
On a terrible day such as today, six things are likely to happen:
*As news accounts of the bombings reach loved ones and friends of those in transit, their first reaction will be to try and call the cell numbers of the people they care about;
*Those who manage to escape injury will call their friends and loved ones to assure them they are OK;
*Those near the scene will use their cell to call emergency responder agencies with updates and pleas for additional help for the wounded;
*Some emergency responders will use the cell network for communications;
*Emergency responder agencies and hospitals will be flooded with mobile calls from anxious, on-the-go friends and relatives who cannot reach the people they care about;
*Cellular networks will be flooded with text messages to and from commuters, and sometimes to each other.
Add up all these stark reasons, and you'll have a day such as today, one which U.K.-based cellular carriers won't ever forget.
In fact, London's telco networks swamped,an article just posted on the technology section of the (Toronto) Globe and Mail's Web site attests to this fact.
According to the G&M's Catherine McLean and Scott Deveau:
Wireless carrier Orange reported double the amount of daily traffic;
Wireless provider O2 experienced call volumes more than twoce that of normal weekday levels, and compensated by putting twice the traffic on the same bandwidth;
BT Mobile reported some uncompleted calls due to network congestion, and;
Vodafone UK experienced network congestion and posted a message on its website asking all of its central London customers to "avoid making unnecessary or lengthy phone calls."
Let's hope we see many more days where more cell calls are made for trivial reasons- and a day like today never happens again.
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June 27, 2005
Posted by Russell Shaw
A story that moved on Reuters last week reports that the National Football League is in talks with Sprint to offer game highlights on mobile phones.
The partnership with Sprint would broaden a relationship that already offers audio highlights of NFL games to Sprint phones. Additionally, Kansas City-area based Sprint has been a Kansas City Chiefs sponsor for a decade.
I suppose if you are traveling, and missed your favorite team's Sunday's game highlights, you might want to see exactly how that 40-yard touchdown pass went down.
To me, though, a service like this has some built-in production value challenges. The NFL playing field is long and wide. Sometimes, the plays that make the best highlights are best depicted from a wide camera angle.
Until 3G phones come- I forsee pixely highlights with narrow angles. I love football, but not enough to settle for inferior video.
Get me to the hotel, and to ESPN. For now.
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June 19, 2005
Posted by Russell Shaw
Several weeks ago, I posted an article here called Music Goes Mobile.
In part, the article explored mobile device, mobile programming and mobile music executives if they could visualize a time in the near future when music-enabled mobile phones will be a competing music platform with portable music players.
While all three sources I spoke with agreed that the sound quality of mobile phones is dramatically improving, none would daresay that mobile phones would supplant portable music players.
Two analysts quoted in a newly posted Wired News article tend to agree. They envision that for the forseeable future, music players will predominantly be for music, and cell phones for talking- with some music capability as an extra for those users who really want it.
Michael Gartenberg, research director for Jupiter Research (gee, Mike, that title is kind of repetitive, don't you think), tells Wired News' Katie Dean that he and his colleagues "don't see (music over cell) as a displacement any more than digital cameraswere displaced by camera phones."
A key issue for Gartenberg is price. "As long as music phones command a significant premium over regular phones then it's going to be difficult to see how the consumer will embrace them."
Even those mobile users who want to enjoy music won't throw away their iPods. "We think there's going to be a very large middle area where people will use both types of devices," IDC analyst Susan Kevorkian (who I am sure by now is much more than tired of that "are you related to.." question) told Dean.
I see the saliency in both viewpoints, but speaking purely as a focus group of one here, gimme an iPod (or similar device) that also makes and takes phone calls.
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June 12, 2005
Posted by Russell Shaw
This morning, I read an Associated Press piece about a service called Grafedia.
Here's how it works. Advertisers put up a teaser message on, say, a sidewalk or telephone pole. The message is either an e-mail address or the address of a Web page, both mappable to grafedia.net.
With your cell phone in your hand you walk by the advert, and then send a text message to the address listed on the message.
Then, depending on the ad, a bigger ad display will open. Or, perhaps, you'll see a history of the building or neighborhood open up within the display you've just SMS'd.
I was bopping around this morning thinking "kewel," at least up until I told this story to someone who approaches technology from a far more practical mindset than I sometimes do.
"Let me get this straight," the X-chromosomal unit says to me. "I've seen enough ads today already. So when I see this ad on the sidewalk, I am supposed to stop walking, get out my cell phone, and send a text message to the sidewalk so that I can see another ad?
Case closed.
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Posted by Russell Shaw
Several weeks ago, a woman here in my home town of Portland, Oregon drove off a bridge while yacking on her cell phone. It was a hands-free handset, by the way.
Fortunately, she survived with mere cuts and scratches on her face. She was more than lucky. Instead of the admonition "Hang Up And Drive," "Hang Up Or Dive" would have been a more relevant caution.
Then, last week, someone nearly sideswiped me while executing a left turn through an intersection on a busy, two-lane street. She was talking on her cell phone as well.
I'm the last person to knock communications technology. I've had a cell since the 1980s, and while I might be happy to see you, that is a cell phone in my pocket.
Still, maybe I'm old fashioned enough to adhere to the notion that when driving, you use your cell in an emergency. Such as calling in a police report of a knife fight on the street that you are driving on, or helping a fellow motorist in distress. Or, if necessary, return the day care center's call.
While driving, you do not use your cell phone to ask what you should pick up at the supermarket, what DVDs you should pick up. Nor do you call your Realtor, your broker, your hairdresser. Pull to the side of the road for that.
Which naturally leads to a discussion about whether local governments should ban cell phone use while driving.
I'm not a reflexive Libertarian, but I would say no. For every near-miss, there's got to be many multiples of successfully executed talking-while-driving conversations. So to me, the issue is whether government should regulate behavior that is more risky than normal - or whether your own common sense should prevail.
Here's how I would parse this issue. Don't outlaw cell phone driving. Instead, sell cell-phone-while-driving permits to individual motorists, and then use the proceeds to support E911 services. Those permit-holders who would abuse the privilege and either cause accidents or get arrested for other moving violations would lose their permits.
And of course, see their insurance rates rise as well.
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June 3, 2005
Posted by Russell Shaw
Anti-virus digital crusader McAfee has formed a partnership with mobile phone feature management solutions provider Bitfone to enable security protection for mobile phones over the air.
Bitfone's solutions are found in phones made and sold by such venerable names as Motorola, LGE, SK Telecom, Sony Ericsson, QUALCOMM and UTStarcom.
Here's how this thing will work. Bitfone will add an embedded McAfee scanning engine to its device management solution. With this added functionality in place, you'll have a mobile client-server set-up that will let cell phone operators prevent, detect and if necessary, recover from viruses, spyware, worms and auto-dialers that attack their networks.
Both on the mobile sys-admin and individual phone-diagnostic level, the McAfee component will be loaded for action. It will enable the Bitfone platform to perform remote diagnostics, scheduled updates to virus definition files, and even purge and reset an individual subscriber's handset that may have eluded the safety net.
As cellular networks get faster, viruses will propogate. Or, attempt to. That's why this solution will take off.
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Posted by Russell Shaw
This week marked a historic if artistically indistinguished moment in the world of mobile music.
For the first time ever, a ring tone topped the British singles best-seller chart.
The piece was "Crazy Frog Axel F," a series of melodious rings and beeps based on a decade-old high-pitched sound edit of a Swedish mo-ped revving up with the hook, line and stinker from the theme to 19xx's "Beverly Hills Cop."
I've been trying to assimilate all this. Of course I can recite back all the analysis and perspective I gathered from the interviews I did for Music Goes Mobile, the fourth part of my Future of Wireless series. Everyone's mobile, cell phones have better sound quality, ringtones rule.
On a personal level though, I just don't understand. Maybe it is because I come from the school that the only useful purpose for a ring tone is when you are in a crowd - to distinguish the sound of your mobile's ring from that of others. And the older I get, the less often I am anywhere near crowds. In fact this afternoon, we're going to forgo a huge festival down at our hometown's riverfront to spend a weekend in a county that has more cows than people.
If I want to hear music, I have a separate device for that. iPod works fine, and so does the music in my head.
But then again, maybe I'm just too dang old.
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May 23, 2005
Posted by Russell Shaw
This week, the Portland, Oregon City Council will discuss a five percent tax on cell services.
To which I say: it is about time. We need the money. Bring it on.
The issue here, as well as in the community where you live, is that many land-line users have forsaken their traditional public-switched telephone to a cell-only number.
Currently, those users are not taxed. As the proportion of land-line phone accounts declines in most North American cities, it stands to reason that the city- already strapped for funds - is even that much more hurt.
Portland City Commissioner Randy Leonard has the best solution. Lower the land-line tax from the current 7 percent to 5, and match that with a cell phone tax.
Cool, I say. Too many of us use our cell lines too often, anyway. I mean, hang out at any mall, store, in front of the local high school, on public transit, even the street corner, and you see the teenagers gabbing away about what they are doing at that precise moment.
Tax 'em on over-minute fees, too. Collect $3-$5 a month from several thousand jabbering high schoolers, and heck, junior high schoolers, and maybe you'll raise enough money to hire another teacher for the school they go to.
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May 4, 2005
Posted by Russell Shaw
I know a woman who is an organizer and fundraiser for choices at the beginning and at the end of life. Causes such as making sure that government does not force pregnant women to give birth, and ensuring that the same civil authorities would not deny a terminal patient with intractable pain a way to leave their body consensually, and with some degree of dignity.
But in terms of means to spread her message, this woman is more into meeting with like-minded people in small discussion groups in the basements of progressive churches than she is into advocacy spread by mobile multimedia technology.
Goddess bless her, but when she encounters someone who disagrees,she was, and is, also one for beating people over the head with her message. You know the type that talks at you rather than to you, and tries to shame you into thinking the way they do.
I remember showing her my fancy video and photo-capable cell phone. Not in so many words, she viewed my new handset as just another exotic creation of a transnational technocracy using technology to get us to spend our obsessive consumerist, materialist dollars.
At the time, though, there was not a Web site called Ourmedia.
Ourmedia is not an agitprop site, but one on which you can freely upload your photos, images,videos, or music you've made and have them available for all the world to see and hear. Your creations can come from a pricey SLR (single-lens-reflex) digital camera, professional DV camcorder, or in the case of images,just a pixel-ly cell phone camera.
The cool part about cell phones with cameras is that unlike digital cameras that most of us tote along only on special occasions, if you carry a cell with you, the camera inside it travels with you. So, maybe you can capture that iconic image that reflects your sociopolitical passion - the homeless man on the sidewalk with his dog, your aunt in the final, painful throes of cancer, an elderly farmer standing out in a field surrounded by suburban sprawl, a clever bumper sticker that says it all.
And then, through an easy process, you can post it to Ourmedia. Then, the next time you make up a fundraising letter or a poster touting a rally, you can include a link to your photos or clips.
Ourmedia is far from perfect, though. I hope that in the next several months, they really get their site usability thing together. Search is awkward and extremely limited, indexing of sections is confusing, and pageloading is timely and occasionally unsuccessful.
There is, though, vast potential in sites such as Ourmedia to act as true community tools for what we can do with our mobile devices.
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May 2, 2005
Posted by John Yunker
Qualcomm is the Microsoft of the telecoms industry, for better and for worse. People in the telecoms industry typically either love the company or hate the company.
I lean toward the latter, so please keep that in mind as you read this brief review of The Qualcomm Equation by Dave Mock.
In this book, published earlier this year, Dave does an excellent and meticulous job of documenting Qualcomm's against-all-odds rise to the top of the telecoms industry. I did not realize the degree to which Qualcomm relied on government business in the early days and also did not realize just how close the company came to missing the cellular boat completely. Back when Europe set in place one standard and many in the US wanted to follow suit, Qualcomm stuck to its guns.
And I think that the US is better off for it.
By and large, the mixed-standards "mess" that we have in the US has turned out to be a pretty good thing. Because of competing standards, we have EV-DO, which is a much-faster technology than single-standard Europe has to offer. Competing technologies keeps everyone on their toes, and Qualcomm has certainly kept the GPRS vendors on their toes. Dave Mock documents this drama and makes sense of the very complex technical standards and jargon.
Mock is perhaps too kind to Qualcomm, particularly in the latter years, as the vendor transforms from David to Goliath. For example, the company has been in an all-out war with Wi-Fi and WiMAX over the past three years, and it is only recently that we now see the company starting to co-opt some of the same technology underlying WiMAX. Qualcomm recently ditched its much-hyped EVDV technology when it became apparent that carriers want IP and big pipes, something WiMAX was designed to address from the ground up.
I find Qualcomm to be a little lost these days, as if it is searching for another big bully to take on again; the trouble is, Qualcomm is now the big bully and it's taking on the types of innovators that it once was.
That said, anyone in the telecoms industry who wants to know how Qualcomm got to be Qualcomm should read this book.
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April 28, 2005
Posted by Russell Shaw
Nochee is a restaurant and bar in downtown Minneapolis that by all accounts, caters to the unattached and newly unattached business crowd.
You know... Lexus, in-town loft, very comfy and growing portfolio, dressed to the nines, drinking the wines, politically liberal but fiscally conservative.. the finer things in life.
And as many of us would maintain, the finer things in life sometimes come in carbon casings of that other chromosome.
And for those of us who have gotten lu.. I mean, have met some really nice folks in these types of establishments, part of the initial hurdle is getting heard above the din.
But text-messaging requires no sound. Just a handheld communications device and a spare hand (while the other holds your fine Merlot).
To the rescue comes a thus-described Minneapolis restaurant and bar called Nochee. Every Thursday night, they give out a total of 50 BlackBerrys already set up for text messaging. They are only yours for the evening, but during the evening, the massive text-messaging and pingfest goes down.
At closing time, that's when the BlackBerry fest ends. You have to return them. But I wouldn't bet against every once in a while, the introductions facilitated by this promotional text-messaging communication perpetuate after closing time.
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April 25, 2005
Posted by Russell Shaw
As a sighted person, it is difficult for me to comprehend the sheer terror of what it means to lose one's eyesight in this technomobile world. I can intellectually comprehend it, but can only feel it through observing the struggles of others not so blessed.
I have examples to refer to. Now 89, my former school principal uncle Dave, a proud, well-read man - can see little more than shadows. My long-time buddy Jim, a man with a technological bent, a Master's Degree and several books to his name, can barely make out the shadows. And when I last heard from my now-former girlfriend Mary a little over a year ago, she was worried how long she could continue driving before a chronic visual deterioration made that unwise, if not impossible. Irony... she's an occupational therapist for severely orthopedically impaired schoolchildren.
All three of these people embrace technology, but have great difficulty using it. Because handset screens are smaller and achieve lower-res than enhanced-display PC monitors, visual obstacles can be even more acute with mobile devices.
This realization led me to the American Federation for the Blind's Web site, and to a Cell Phones, PDAs, GPS's message board on the site.
The posts were a combination of frustration and proposed work-arounds. One poster summed up the issue for so many: "You can send a man to the moon, send a satellite to Mars, build a space center in outer space, but why can't they produce a cell phone or a PDA or even a GPS with audio technology for the visually impaired," asked poster Johncue.
Some readers wrote back with solutions, which included Nokia 6620 with the Mobile Speak, screen reader, and a PDA called Pac-mate that works with an optional Braille keyboard and accessories.
There's something else. It costs $3,000, but just might work. It's a headworn video magnifier named JORDY. Made by a company known as Enhanced Vision, who named the product after Geordi LaForge, a sightless character in Star Trek: The Next Generation.
And if you read through this Associated Press article, you'll see that a visually impaired NASA engineer has an idea to scale down the JORDY so it could work with handsets.
It would be welcome but ironic if a handset usability solution for the JORDY - named after a fictional space exploration scientist - came from a visually impaired real-world space exploration scientist.
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March 1, 2005
Posted by John Yunker
So it has been about a week since my Cingular Treo 650 gave me a horrible case of buyer's remorse.
As I wrote here a few days back, about a week after I bought the device I realized that the voicemail number would change randomly, and rarely into a number that actually dialed voicemail. Much worse, I found that whenever I tried to dial a phone number the device reset itself. My Treo had effectively downgraded itself into a Zire.
So I went to Cingular, swapped the Gemplus SIM card for the Axalto SIM card and still suffered problems. Some of the folks I've spoken with who had similar problems found that once they exchanged SIM cards their Treos worked just fine.
I was not so fortunate.
It turns out that when I restored all the old files and settings onto my Treo, I also restored a file or setting that caused the same general conflict. So even though I had the new SIM card I had the old problems.
If you're in the same boat, be sure to completely uninstall your old desktop Palm software and then reinstall. And you'll need to do a hard reset of your Treo.
Since I use a Mac I was faced with the daunting prospect of reinstalling both the Palm desktop software and the Missing Sync software. As a workaround, I simply located the actual user backup files on my desktop, deleted them, and then the problem went away.
Fingers crossed. I have not had any random resets since wiping out the old backup files, so I will assume my problem is solved.
But before I put this affair behind me, here are a few anecdotes, rumors and lessons that I picked up along the way:
1. Treo and Cingular cleared rushed the Treo out to market too quickly. And it just didn't hurt customers like myself; dealers were also burned because when this problem first surfaced they simply assumed the devices were broken and exchanged them for new devices resulting in lost sales of those new devices (which are in hot demand). Which leads me to...
2. Do the folks at Palm or Cingular ever take a moment to read the Treo message boards like TreoCentral or Howard Forums. Had they done so, they would have spotted this problem early on and saved me and potentially thousands of others a great deal of frustration and wasted time.
3. And why aren't the dealers reading the same message boards? Some of them don't even read the email they get from Cingular because at least two of them had to be educated by their customers. One customer actually brought in a printout of a message board posting to prove that there was a SIM card issue. When the customers know more about the product than the dealers, something is wrong with Cingular's chain of communication.
4. The Palm and Cingular support Web sites could not be less supportive if they tried. Now, if I have a problem with my Treo, I don't even bother going to their Web sites; I just go to the message boards.
5. I've read a rumor that Palm has a software patch in the works for the the Cingular Treo 650.
6. If you've got a Treo that is beyond SIM repair, you might find that dealer is "all out" of replacement Treos. But they may be lying. Yes, there is a rush on these things but dealers are also reluctant to use Treos as replacements because they want to sell them. One customer resorted to calling Cingular dealers as a prospective new customer; once he located a dealer who had a Treo 650, he told them to hold it and when he arrived to replace his Treo, they couldn't give him the old "sorry, we're all out" routine (which they actually tried).
7. I think if Apple does get into the cellular business, it will do well. It has a distribution network of highly trained employees who really understand computers (as opposed to cellular dealers who typically know less about Treos than their customers). And it builds computers that don't crash. PalmSource hasn't figured that one out yet. I did read that PalmSource is looking at Linux as a future OS; this would be a big step forward in creating an operating system that doesn't crash when a software conflict rears its ugly head.
8. Finally, despite all the trouble, despite all the time spent on hold, I do like Treo 650 a lot and Cingular coverage in Escondido is pretty darn good. Fingers crossed.
Thanks for the all comments and emails.
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February 28, 2005
Posted by John Yunker
Dave Mock has published what I believe is the first authoritative book on Qualcomm and how it got to be the success that it is today. The book is titled The Qualcomm Equation and I hope to have a review shortly.
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February 22, 2005
Posted by John Yunker
If you've purchased a Treo recently from Cingular and are having problems, read this post...
Two weeks ago I took the plunge and purchased the Treo 650 from Cingular. I don't have to repeat the many glowing reviews this device has received. What did it for me was knowing that there would be a Wi-Fi plug-in available later this year. Here's one that's on the way.
The first week with the Treo was mostly positive. Syncing is a challenge with any device, particularly if you are a Mac user. PalmSource gave up supporting Macs last year, so I had to go to a third party to get software to sync my calendar and contacts. As a Mac user, I'm accustomed to these little exercises.
After about a week the troubles began. I would go to dial a number and the phone would reset on me. Just like that. The screen goes black and then it boots up again. For a moment there I had a flashback to my Windows Me days.
To make matters worse, the voicemail phone number would change on me randomly, displaying everything from international numbers to a string of zeros.
So I went to the Cingular and PalmOne Web sites and found nothing of help. There was clearly a software glitch - perhaps a conflict between the SIM card and the Palm OS. This is in many ways the worst possible problem, because it falls in between the cracks of the device manufacturer and the carrier. In fact, when I finally did get ahold of Cingular, they initially told me that I had a faulty device and that I should return it.
Then I discovered Treo forums here and here. And I quickly realized that I wasn't alone. Between the forums I estimate that I have found close to a hundred people who have buggy Treo 650s. Granted, it's very hard to tell what's a legitimate bug or software conflict or naive user, but based on reading these countless postings, I can't help but think that Palm and Cingular rushed out this handset a bit too quickly.
One user goes to Cingular the other day and finds that corporate has sent an email to all dealers telling them that the SIM card is causing problems. The dealers have been sent a stack of Axalto SIM cards to exchange with the existing Gemplus SIM cards.
So once I heard this I went over to my local dealer and was met with a blank stare, until I found the manager who just happened to have read the same email that morning. They swapped the cards and the problem went away, sorta.
I had to go home and do a hard reset, that is, erase all the settings and software I had set up, and the phone worked again. Needless to say, I was relieved, until I ran a sync operation and all the old files and settings were pushed back onto the Treo. Suddenly, the same old problems came back to life. Once user on the forum said I need to reinstall my backup software as well (which for me meant reinstalling two applications all over again). Instead, I tried to remove just the backup files and this seemed to do the trick.
It has been three days and I've only had on random reset.
I've been in touch with PalmOne PR and hope to have more information soon. What I want to know is this:
1. How severe is this problem? How many people need to be changing SIM cards?
2. Why didn't PalmOne and Cingular notify everyone the minute they discovered this problem? How many people right now are waiting on hold with Cingular cursing their Treos?
3. Did Cingular pull the Treo off its Web site yesterday because of this problem or because of supply shortages? They'll probably say it's because of shortages, but I can't help but wonder.
Anyway, I hope this isn't a big problem, though it certainly has been a big one for me. And I'm still wondering if I should just return the thing the get on with my life (I've wasted a good 10 hours on hold, at the dealer, and futzing with the device). But, most of all, I hope other frustrated Treo users out there read this post and get to their dealer if they're having problems.
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February 7, 2005
Posted by John Yunker
David Isenberg gave us the the Rise of the Stupid Network. Ambient Devices is giving rise to the stupid device.
While wireless phones get smarter, other wireless devices are getting dumber.
The Ambient Orb represents what I believe will be a growing segement of wireless devices -- those that do a great deal less, but do it really well.
Ambient Devices is in many ways a mobile virtual network operator (MVNO). It owns no network; instead, it leases network access from another carrier (MetroCall's paging network).
The orb literally needs no instruction manual because it ships programmed to do just one thing, such monitor the stock market or the weather. You just plug it in and it does the rest. Now, if you want to the orb to represent different data streams, such as the pollen count or a specific stock, you need to set up an online account with Ambient.
I would like to see Ambient extend this functionality to home wireless networks and consumer devices. For example, I would like to have some orb by the back door that glows if I've left any appliance or light on in the house - so I don't end up leaving that house and then coming back twenty minutes later. I would also like smoke detectors that change color based on how much battery life is left.
I'm sure they're working on it...
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January 17, 2005
Posted by John Yunker
As reported in the WSJ last week, a group of California Verizon Wireless customers are suing their carrier for selling them a "disabled" Motorola V710 handset.
So let me get this right, the first "Bluetooth-enabled" handset that Verizon Wireless brought to market was disabled?
That's right.
The lawsuit rightfully contends that when a carrier advertises Bluetooth support that is must support the degree of Bluetooth that consumers come to expect. In other words, just leave the technology alone and let it work as it was intended.
Verizon wants customers to use Bluetooth only for wireless handset capabilities, not for syncing their handsets with their computers or, worse, downloading ring tones and other "premium" content from outside Verizon's walled garden. As one customer said, "It's like buying an SUV that can't go in the mud."
This is a timely lawsuit and should serve notice to all service providers who believe that consumers will passively consume what wireless features they are fed. Thanks to Wi-Fi and other wireless devices, consumers are growing both savvy and demanding about wireless technology. They know what Bluetooth is capable of and they're going to be pretty upset if anyone stands in the way of that functionality. The same goes for Wi-Fi, which is gradually making its way into carrier portfolios.
Cellular carriers want to think of themselves as cable operators, who charge a monthly fee for "basic" connectivity plus make a bunch more money from "premium content." But the walled garden only works when there are walls, and thanks to a new wave of fixed wireless upstarts and newly motivated incumbents, like SBC and BellSouth, no carrier (wired or wireless) will win by walling in their customers.
The carriers of the future will tear down the walls between wired and wireless, TV and computer, home and work. The carriers of the future will function as personal systems integrators, selling services and not pipes. Verizon Wireless and Vodafone kid themselves in thinking they can control the handset manufacturers and, as a result, the consumers; it is a stopgap measure at best. Every disabled device represents a disabled business model. The walls will fall down.
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January 11, 2005
Posted by John Yunker
WiMAX has often been viewed as competitive to 3G or DSL networks. But I've always asked the question: Why can't a service provider use both?
Well, it looks like Lucent has been asking that same question. They just announced a partnership with Alvarion to begin merging WiMAX with their existing 3G and wireline portfolio. This is great news for Alvarion.
Here's the full release:
Lucent Technologies to Integrate Alvarion's WiMAX-Ready Platform into Its Converged Networking Portfolio
Lucent and Alvarion Partner to Deliver Converged Networking Solution That Enables Service Providers to Complement Existing 3G Mobile and Wireline Networks with WiMAX
MURRAY HILL, N.J -- Jan. 11, 2005--Lucent Technologies (NYSE: LU) today announced its plans to integrate WiMAX technology, based on the IEEE's 802.16 standard, through Alvarion's (NASDAQ:ALVR) BreezeMAX(TM) product line -- into its Accelerate(TM) Next Generation Communications Solutions portfolio, which includes Lucent's industry-leading IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) solution. Lucent's IMS-based convergence solution, which will include support for WiMAX, can help service providers deliver seamless communications services across a variety of wireless and wireline networks and enables the introduction of new converged "lifestyle" service bundles that can increase customer satisfaction and reduce customer churn.
Lucent will team with Alvarion, a market leader in wireless broadband networks, to deliver a converged networking solution to service providers that includes the seamless interoperability of WiMAX, third-generation (3G) mobile (CDMA2000(R) and W-CDMA/UMTS), WiFi and wireline networks. Additionally, as part of this initiative, Lucent Worldwide Services (LWS) will provide a comprehensive suite of deployment, maintenance, and professional services to support WiMAX infrastructure and applications, further extending LWS' multi-vendor services capabilities in important growth markets.
"WiMAX clearly complements existing and emerging 3G mobile and wireline networks, and can play a significant role in helping our customers deliver converged service offerings that can be accessed using a broad range of devices on a wide variety of networks," said John Marinho, vice president of strategic marketing for Lucent Technologies. "Our Bell Labs expertise, industry-leading IMS portfolio, best-in-class 3G mobile and broadband wireline solutions, and end-to-end services capabilities place Lucent in the best position to implement WiMAX technology as part of a converged networking solution. We're very excited to work with Alvarion because they are the front-runners and thought leaders in the WiMAX arena and this relationship will enhance our product portfolio."
BreezeMAX is Alvarion's 3G OFDM (orthogonal frequency division multiplexing) platform with advanced Non-Line-of-Sight (NLOS) functionality and a leading WiMAX-ready platform.
"Alvarion is pleased to be selected by Lucent for our outstanding WiMAX-ready product portfolio leveraged by our 10 plus years of experience in the wireless field," said Zvi Slonimsky, CEO of Alvarion. "No doubt this relationship will be a vehicle in the evolution of the fixed broadband wireless market to widespread availability of mobile broadband and reflects our commitment to the future of WiMAX."
The underlying foundation of Lucent's converged networking portfolio is the Lucent IMS solution, a service delivery platform that enables service providers to simply and cost-effectively introduce new voice over IP (VoIP) and multimedia services. Lucent's IMS solution enables operators to deliver services that blend voice and data capabilities, simplifying the creation of converged "lifestyle" service bundles. It also helps reduce the introduction costs and time-to-market for new services by leveraging a common applications infrastructure to deliver services with a common "look and feel" across 3G mobile, WiFi, WiMAX, and wireline networks.
Both companies are members of the WiMAX Forum(TM), an industry-led organization that facilitates the compatibility and certification of broadband wireless access equipment, with Alvarion holding several prominent positions on the board. The WiMAX Forum is expected to certify products as WiMAX Forum Certified(TM) later this year. By working with Alvarion and the WiMAX Forum, Lucent will ensure that WiMAX is compatible with 3G mobile and wireline networks, and that it meets service provider requirements for quality, reliability and performance.
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January 10, 2005
Posted by John Yunker
Tech pundit Bob Cringley's annual predictions are always a good read. Here are his wireless predictions:
->WiMax will be a huge story by summer, but widespread adoption of the wireless networking technology will take at least another two years. In the meantime, though, nobody will make money on WiFi, but it will become ubiquitous anyway, especially with the arrival of 802.11n.
( I'm not sure WiMAX can be much more of a "huge" story than it is already. I would add that Wi-Fi will become known more for the applications it supports [see below] than for simply providing Internet access.)
-> VoIP will continue to shatter the telephone industry with the arrival of WiFi phones, which might finally be the killer app for hotspots. Eventually, all the backbone suppliers will figure out that VoIP is their salvation and will either start their own VoIP companies or ally with big VoIP players.
(I agree. Wi-Fi phones [standalone or embedded within PDAs and cellular handsets] are going to give carriers a reason to invest in hotspots; they're a lot cheaper than base stations and can often be partially supported by the venue.)
-> Two thousand five will NOT be the year for UltraWide Band (UWB) networking or Power Line Networking, but both will do really well in 2006.
(After spending time at CES, it's safe to say we'll see commercial UWB products, primarily for wireless USB. However, we will also see a blending of power line and UWB technology for pretty nifty hi-def home networking. But much of this will take until 2006 I'm afraid.)
You can read Bob's full list of predictions here.
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December 30, 2004
Posted by John Yunker
Now that Nextel has gone and dashed Flarion's hopes for a nationwide deployment, there are signs that T-Mobile USA's parent might be seriously considering using Flarion for a 450 MHz deployment in Germany. Unstrung has the details here. So don't count out Flarion just yet.
Siemens is already onboard to produce equipment and T-Mobile has a stake in Flarion so it's hard to see how this deployment won't happen. But after the Nextel/Sprint deal, anything is possible.
The 450 MHz band in Europe has to be driving the major cellular vendors crazy. Just when they thought they had their carrier customers locked into a nice GPRS/UMTS/HSDPA upgrade path, another swath of spectrum opens up allowing another technology (a potentially better technology) to take hold.
If there is one certainty in the years ahead it is that there is no certainty about which cellular technology will dominate. Every new band of spectrum that opens up promises new opportunities and new threats. This is great news for consumers (and industry analysts) but not the best news for the large vendors who must keep a hand in every new wireless technology and standard.
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December 24, 2004
Posted by John Yunker
Daily Wireless reports on the forthcoming Samsung SCH-i730 PDA phone, which will include EV-DO, Wi-Fi and Bluetooth. This is the perfect mix of WLAN and WAN connectivity. Now will Verizon Wireless drag its heels on supporting this device or will Sprint be first out of the gate? Either way, I believe that carriers, despite their fretting about lost minutes of use, will learn to love Wi-Fi, for it will give their EV-DO networks some much-needed breathing room.
This could be my next handset.
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December 21, 2004
Posted by John Yunker
Dave Mock is a wireless consultant and analyst with currentofferings.com and author of the forthcoming book The Qualcomm Equation. Dave took a moment to answer a few of my burning telecoms questions...
Q: What are your thoughts about a Nextel/Sprint merger? Is this good news for US telecoms industry? Good news for consumers?
A: The Sprint/Nextel combo will have pros and cons but overall I think it’s a move in the right direction for both the industry and consumers. Nextel’s strained network will get relief and Sprint will get some very profitable channels. The different network platforms will slow the integration though – they’ll operate two networks for a while.
Q: What are your predictions about Qualcomm and China? China has been testing the two leading 3G technologies along with a homegrown technology. Any thoughts on how it will all play out?
A: I think China will push TD-SCDMA into the market somehow, with the principle purpose of leveraging a bigger role in the industry. Whether it is successful or not probably doesn’t matter as much as what it buys them. I think arguments of Qualcomm’s assertion of IPR in the standard are moot, as I don’t see it as a significant driver of royalty for them. However it plays out, CDMA and WCDMA should still develop a significant presence.
Q: EV-DO vs. HSDPA: Which do you like better, and why?
A: I like EV-DO because it’s here today. Ultimately, HSDPA promises more flexibility for operators, but it’s got some distance to go before widespread deployment.
Q: Qualcomm is becoming a network operator with its MediaFLO deployment. Why is Qualcomm doing this and do you think it will pay off?
A: Well, Qualcomm has no interest in being a network operator. But they certainly would like to see the spin-off take fire to boost demand for wireless broadband (re: their EV-DO). It’s a typical practice for them I call “seeding the market”, and it’s very forward thinking as there is not yet significant demand for streamed media. Odds are it won’t pan out well (just as several other ideas have flopped), but they only have to be right once to hit it big again.
Q: Since MediaFLO will using an ODFM technology, is this a sign that OFDM is going to drive Qualcomm's next-generation chipsets?
A: I think OFDM will play a bigger role in Qualcomm’s designs going forward (where it’s appropriate). When it comes to chipsets, Qualcomm has demonstrated competency in integrating whatever customers demand – be it GSM, WCDMA, OFDM or maybe even Wi-Fi. As long as OFDM offers performance advantages, they’ll play.
Q: Speaking of Wi-Fi, do you think that Wi-Fi-enabled handsets will hurt the success of EV-DO and other 3G technologies, or increase usage of these networks (or both)?
A: I think Wi-Fi is shaping up to be a serious threat, and this is no surprise to anyone in Qualcomm. But I think it hurts Qualcomm less than the operators, who will lose control of the channel. Regional (and municipal) Wi-Fi deployments have the biggest chance of limiting the uptake of EV-DO, and pressuring service prices. Actually, Wi-Fi itself is not the true threat – it’s the aggregation of hotspots and roaming agreements for WLANs that potentially could cut out EV-DO. But so far these efforts have failed.
Q: Should Qualcomm be frightened by WiMAX? And do you think the vendor will ultimately support WiMAX?
A: Qualcomm should be concerned about WiMAX and anything like it – and they are. The standard itself will likely be stalled to no end as it is too broad right now, but some significant decisions will be made in 2005 that could put it on the fast track or send it out to be shot. Intel’s weight shouldn’t be underestimated here, and I think they’ll be successful in getting many in the industry to adopt the standard if it comes through in marketable form.
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December 16, 2004
Posted by John Yunker
Glenn makes sense of this "Wi-Fi in the air" story.
The FCC didn't just suddenly decide to allow Wi-Fi on planes. Two years ago, the FCC lobbied the ITU to allocate global satellite spectrum specifically for the purpose of providing in-flight broadband. This is not news. The news now is that the FCC will be allowing a different form of backhaul (ground to air) to the planes.
The real reason we haven't see Wi-Fi on domestic flights yet is lack of resources and vision. Domestic airlines are terrified of any new cost, regardless of whether or not they may actually profit from it. They'll come to their senses after one of the more aggressive carriers (Jet Blue?) starts deploying Wi-Fi. I also look forward to seeing data from Lufthansa that shows they are nabbing customers from competing carriers based solely on their Wi-Fi service.
And there are other, equally compelling, reasons why I believe airlines will ultimately adopt wireless broadband backhaul to their jets: telemedicine, real-time aircraft monitoring, VoIP, security, content. Like any other commercial venue, wirleess broadband in general and Wi-Fi in particular will serve many audiences and many needs.
What I want to see discussed is the use of VoIP over Wi-Fi on aircraft.
VoIP is currently allowed on at least some of the aircraft using Connexion by Boeing and yet we have the FCC taking a year to study cellular phone use on aircraft. What happens when your cellular phone has Wi-Fi embedded in it? Will a flight attendant tell you not to use your phone even if you're only using Wi-Fi?
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December 10, 2004
Posted by John Yunker
Well, it looks like we've got a merger happening between Nextel and Sprint. I find it disappointing. Despite what they will say in the weeks and months ahead, this merger isn't about improving the customer experience; it's about Nextel sidestepping a very expensive network deployment -- one that could have been more sophisticated than anythng the other carriers had in store.
Instead, Nextel will likely follow Sprint's lead on the EV-DO network. It's a great technology, but Verizon's got the exact same technology plus a head start.
Nextel's Research Triangle deployment using Flarion's gear has been by most accounts a success and the pricing was very aggressive at $35/month. I would like to see a major carrier commit to some seriously high-speed broadband wireless, regardless of what gear they use: Flash-OFDM, WiMAX, whatever. Maybe it will be AT&T (who just partnered with Intel).
Here's an interesting analysis of the situation thus far.
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December 8, 2004
Posted by John Yunker
Intel has released a few results of a survey of more than 2,000 men and women and their attitudes toward technology. The survey finds that women are more predisposed to wanting wireless-enabled laptops than men. According to the release:
Not often recognized as early adopters, women in the survey are revealed as leading the way with wireless Internet access, as more women than men believe this is one of the most important features for a laptop to have (39 percent women versus 29 percent men). While men (51 percent) and women (48 percent) agree that the airport tops the list of the most useful locations to have wireless Internet access, women (38 percent) are more likely than men (30 percent) to desire a connection in a doctor's office as well.
Wi-Fi isn't mentioned specifically, but I think that's what we're talking about here.
In a recent investor's briefing, Intel says that its Centrino (Wi-Fi) line has generated $5 billion in revenues in just two years. Not too shabby. Now Intel is aiming for the desktop. People may wonder why Wi-Fi would be useful in a desktop since it is a stationary device. For starters, wiring is a pain and always will be. But I think the larger opportunity is home monitoring and control. So many devices are going to be running on the home Wi-Fi grid that it will make sense to have all computers supporting Wi-Fi.
Finally, given such user demand for wireless devices, I wonder if Intel and Qualcomm will learn to play nice and start cranking out a line of Centrino/EV-DO devices. And why not add a Centrino/HSDPA line as well.
Yes, I know WiMAX is coming. But Intel should hedge its bets. It owns the wireless laptop market and should do all it can to keep that lead.
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December 7, 2004
Blink ›
Siemens Loves OFDM
Siemens is getting some blazing speeds out of OFDM. It is also going to be building OFDM gear in partnership with Flarion. OFDM is becoming the technology of choice for next-generation networks. Qualcomm's on board. Wi-Fi uses it. Who's next?
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Posted by John Yunker
For several years now, the US has taken a back seat to Asia and Europe in regard to next-generation wireless deployment. A mix of competing wireless standards and tepid SMS usage were largely viewed as a sign that the US could not keep pace with the rest of the world.
Not any more.
While Japan and Korea will retain their lead for some time, the US is poised to surpass Europe in network speeds, bandwidth consumption and, more important, network variety. Here's the landscape as it looks today:
Next-gen Network Plans
Cingular: UMTS/HSDPA (6 cities live with UMTS)
T-Mobile: Wi-Fi currently and UMTS/HSDPA appears likely
Verizon Wireless: EV-DO (14 cities live)
Sprint: EV-DO
Nextel: EV-DO Rev A or Flash-OFDM
Europe will see isolated HSDPA deployments, but nothing on the scale that we're going to see here. That's because Verizon's EV-DO network is pushing the other carriers to keep pace or try to leap ahead. And because Europe is on one standard and one set of train tracks, things are going to move a bit more slowly. One big wild card is the extent to which Flash-OFDM and UMTS-TDD succeed in Europe.
Remember when the US was criticized by Europe for its chaotic mix of wireless technologies? Ironically, this chaos appears to be doing more good than harm as it creates a more dynamic technology horse race.
And then there is bandwidth consumption. So what if US text messaging isn't on par with Europe; Americans are now paying for TV feeds from Sprint and are hungry for more frames per second. Qualcomm is priming the multimedia content market with its own nationwide OFDM rollout. And then there is Wi-Fi, which is wildly popular in the US and is driving carriers to create "Wi-Fi-like" wireless experiences.
Finally, there is Nextel, which will deploy a technology that is in line with what's going on right now in Korea. Truly cutting edge. (I'll post my thoughts on which vendor will win out in a few days.)
Yes folks, things are looking up for wireless consumers in the US.
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December 3, 2004
Posted by John Yunker
Scott Carson is no longer president of Connexion by Boeing. He's moving over to VP of commercial airline sales and in his place is Laurette Koellner, who was formerly VP of Internal Services. Hard to tell if this means major changes are in store for Connexion. I like Scott and suspect his skills are needed to help boost sagging jet sales. I still don't fully understand why the new Dreamliner jets don't ship with Wi-Fi by default; maybe he can change that. It seems like a Wi-Fi/picocell infrastructure should be included so that Boeing is in a position to sell the value-add services that airlines increasingly need: consumer voice, data, entertainment, real-time aircraft maintenance, telemedicine, etc.
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Blink ›
Bad News for Navini; Good News for IPWireless
Unstrung reports that PCCW has dropped Navini in favor of IPWireless. Navini had tried to go the proprietary fixed wireless route awhile back, then began backing 802.20 only to change course and join the WiMAX Forum.
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December 2, 2004
Posted by John Yunker
The IEEE has a new working group up and running (802.22) and they've got a new acronym that is sure to confuse media and profit analysts for years to come: WRAN, which stands for wireless regional area network.
WRAN joins a growing list of acronyms defined by coverage area:
- WPAN (personal area network)
- WLAN (local area network)
- WMAN (metro area network)
- WRAN (regional area network)
(There is also 802.20 "wireless mobility" which is in desperate need of a good acronym.)
Labeling a technology by coverage area is an inperfect solution. WLAN can easily be powered up to cover several miles and WMAN is not likely to see many deployments over 5 to 10 miles (let alone 30), at least in the unlicensed band.
WRAN will attempt to bring order to new unlicensed UHF/VHF bands that will open up as part of the FCC-mandated digital television "upgrade." Specifically, the working group's charter is to "develop a standard for a cognitive radio-based PHY/MAC/air_interface for use by license-exempt devices on a non-interfering basis in spectrum that is allocated to the TV Broadcast Service."
The "non-interfering basis" will probably be the technical issue most contested by broadcasters in the years to come. But every little unlicensed crack in the FCC wall is a good thing and I wish this group luck.
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December 1, 2004
Posted by John Yunker
Engadget is reporting that Canadian cellular carrier Telus has finally launched a Fastap-enabled LG handset.
Fastap is keypad layout, developed by Digit Wireless, in which the letters are interspersed between the numbers, as shown below. The letters are also raised slightly to prevent selecting multiple keys at once.
I first met the folks from Digit Wireless three years ago and I thought the keypad was a winner back then. Apparently carriers and device manufactuers have been less enthused. But I'm glad Digit Wireless stuck with it because this really is a great way to squeeze a lot of functionality into a little space.
I've used Fastap and I believe that it's a lot easier to learn than Blackberry's latest keypad incarnation, included below.
I still prefer qwerty but I also wonder if qwerty is a generational thing. I was forced to learn qwerty in high school using, yes, actual typewriters. And I distinctly remember just how absurd qwerty appeared to me at first. Today, qwerty is my perferred mode of text input, and I very much want my smart phone to support qwerty as well.
But I am old news in the eyes of the cellular industry. The next generation of computer users, particularly outside the US, have grown up using cellular handsets. These folks might find Fastap to be a better way to input text than qwerty because they never had that required typing class.
Of course, Fastap is going to have to find its way onto a few dozen more handsets before that changeover can begin.
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November 24, 2004
Posted by John Yunker
Verizon Wireless announced in their Q3 call that they now have 75,000 broadband wireless subscribers. That may not sound like very much for a comapny with 42.1 million subscribers, but hey, they've got to start somewhere. And we're not talking about an inexpensive service; at $80/month this is strictly a business service right now.
The 75,000 does not reflect the 14 cities that the BroadbandAccess service is now avaiable in. Most of the cities only just went live. My guess is that the majority of the subscribers are based the DC area, with a healthy percentage based in San Qualcomm (I mean, San Diego).
So, let's see, 75,000 x $80/month equals $6 million per month.
Here's a good piece about Verizon, Sprint and Cingular in Bloomberg
Question: Now that Sprint is deploying a similar EV-DO network, when will Verizon Wireless start dropping prices, and how low?
My prediction: $59/month by this time next year. And bandwidth will no longer be "unlimited."
UPDATE: It looks like Verizon Wireless may be testing a $15/month package for consumers, similar to what Sprint is doing. I'm assuming that their business data plans won't be quite so aggressive, but who knows. Maybe my estimate is way off; I certainly hope so.
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Posted by John Yunker
If you want a good rundown of the battle brewing between Qualcomm and TI over digital video, check out this article in the MIT Technology Review.
Both Qualcomm and TI are pushing technologies that they believe will make watching television on your cell phone as natural as talking on your cell phone. Qualcomm is pushing MediaFLO while TI is pushing DVB-H. Qualcomm says MediaFLO does a better job of managing power consumption, probably because they recently acquired a company that produces video display technology that is power efficient.
But the larger issue, of course, is how quickly consumers will modify their behavior to incorporate cell phone TV.
My question is this: Let's assume people do embrace cell phone TV and are prepared for pay a premium for it. As a customer, I would prefer to pay a small additional fee to have the cable content I already pay for at home available to me on the road rather than paying a presumably larger fee to a cellular carrier for the same content. Where will the cable companies fit amidst all of this?
In the meantime, keep your eyes on MobiTV and Alan's camera phone report.
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| Category: Cellular
November 19, 2004
Posted by John Yunker
The ARC Group has a report out that says that Bluetooth will continue to outship Wi-Fi in high-end smart phones.
ARC says Bluetooth phone shipments will hit 6 million this year while Wi-Fi shipments won't hit 1.75 million until the end of next year. I think they are underestimating demand for Wi-Fi a tad bit, although I do understand the low estimate; after all, there aren't that many devices yet available.
But I do dispute their assertion that Wi-Fi will only account for 15% of all smart phone shipments in 2007. I think we're going to see Wi-Fi-enabled devices, such as the Blackberry 7270 (due out early next year) be more successful than many predict.
But the point I want to make is this: shipments alone do not directly correlate with usage. Bluetooth is like the cruise control feature on cars - nice to have but not always used. I would argue that only half of all people with Bluetooth-enabled handsets actually use the technology regularly. I've encountered many people over the years with Bluetooth devices who either don't have a need for Bluetooth, or don't even know they have it.
Contrast that with Wi-Fi, where usage correlates more closely with equipment shipments. Since you have a pay a premium today to get a Wi-Fi-enabled handset, odds are that you'll be using it on a regular basis.
But I think the Bluetooth vs. Wi-Fi debate will get most interesting when both technologies find their way into handsets. I would love to know, for instance, which of the two technologies is most popular in the iPAQ h6315 Pocket PC.
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November 17, 2004
Posted by John Yunker
The iPass announcement yesterday that it will offer its enterprise customers flat-rate pricing for its Wi-Fi network is just another sign that the pay-as-you-go Internet access business model is going away.
And why is that? This quote from their press release pretty much says it all:
"iPass spends a lot of time in dialogue with our customers, and this pricing plan addresses the desires of some of our customers who wanted a way to make the cost of Wi-Fi use predictable," said Jon Russo, vice president of marketing at iPass. "This 'all-you-can-eat' approach allows the IT department to reliably budget the cost of Wi-Fi hotspot access across an entire organization or for a subset within it. iPass expects this new optional pricing plan to further accelerate Wi-Fi usage."
Charging by the minute or charging by the megabyte (MB) inevitably cause user frustration. Phone calls always seem to last longer than we expect and who honestly wants to spend their days monitoring the kilobytes of every email they send? Flat-rate pricing is a big reason why I favor Connexion by Boeing over Tenzing.
Flat-rate pricing is great news for content providers and, I believe, the future of the telecoms industry. VoIP would not be the phonomenon that it is today if consumers were paying for their broadband connections by the MB.
But what I find most interesting is that we're seeing a collision of sorts between per-minute voice plans and flat-rate data plans. If consumers want predictable billing and VoIP is proving that voice works just fine over broadband connections, how can per-minute voice plans survive in the long run?
As any carrier will tell you (privately), they can't.
Perhaps the 3G networks that we're now seeing go nationwide will give carriers the breathing room they need to start testing unlimited voice plans. Or, perhaps unlimited voice usage will be relegated to those Wi-Fi networks that carriers can't figure out how to profit from.
And cellular carriers can insert fine print into their contracts to prevent network overuse. Even Cox caps broadband consumption per month; it's just that the cap is set so high that few people are affected (so far).
Although the iPass announcement only affects IT departments. In a way, we're all IT managers when it comes to our personal cellular and data plans. And it's hard for me to believe that we all won't one day get those flat-rate plans we desire.
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November 12, 2004
Posted by John Yunker
According to Gartner, by way of CNET, Microsoft has taken the OS lead on handhelds.
Here are Gartner's Q3 handheld shipment numbers:
- Windows CE: 1.4 million (up 33% from last year)
- Palm: 851,000 (down 26% from last year)
- RIM (Blackberry): 565,000 (up 356% from last year)
So it's no surprise that PalmOne, the maker of the actual Palm devices, is taking a hard look at supporting Microsoft's OS. This development looks less and less like opportunism and more and more like mere survival.
Which brings me to yesterday's post on the importance of syncing. Carriers and consumers are making buying decisions based on how well these types of devices play well with others. And regardless of all the syncing options available today, it could be simply that consumers and business perceive a Windows OS as better suited to syncing with their Windows server and desktop applications then the PalmSource OS.
Now what can PalmSource do to fight back?
At one point I would have recommended that they work more closely with Apple and Linux. But PalmSource recently threw in the towel on supporting Mac OSX; there's now a petition of unhappy Mac users who want them to reverse course.
Perhaps a Linux mobile OS will gain momentum. I certainly believe there is room for a Linux OS that runs on a Wi-Fi device. This way, a vendor can sidestep a whole boatload of licensing fees and go straight to emerging and niche markets. But this will take time and I'm not sure PalmSource can last that long.
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| Category: Cellular
November 10, 2004
Posted by John Yunker
Much is being made of the Qualcomm vs. WiMAX battle these days. And their recent announcement that they are getting into the broadcast business in the US, by means of their MediaFLO network, will add fuel to the fire.
MediaFLO is a $800 million bet on consumer demand for TV content. According to the press release, Qualcomm "intends to offer the network as a shared resource for U.S. CDMA2000 and WCDMA (UMTS) cellular operators, enabling them to deliver mobile interactive multimedia to their wireless subscribers without the cost of network deployment and operation." Sounds awfully altruistic, doesn't it?
Basically, Qualcomm wants to prime the pump for significant broadband delivery/demand. Carriers have not exactly been tripping over themselves to deploy EV-DO networks. And even when Verizon Wireless and Sprint do get those networks up nationally there's no guarantee the networks will be able to provide the type of high-speed A/V feeds that consumers will likely want. By dedicating a separate network specifically to broadcasting content (FLO stands for forward-link only) Qualcomm creates a nice wholesale content delivery business. All carriers need to do is start upgrading their subscribers to the new handsets that include the brand new FLO-ready chips.
I've read a few articles that point to MediaFLO as a yet another example of how WiMAX will ultimately fail. After all, the thinking goes, if all these networks are live and pumping huge amounts of data by the time WiMAX goes live, why would carriers even bother with WiMAX?
Yet despite the real or perceived conflicts, WiMAX and FLO have one thing in common: OFDM. OFDM stands for orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (sometimes acronyms are better left untranslated). All you need to know is that OFDM is the cornerstone technology for 4G. Even Flarion, the technology that Nextel is currently testing for its next broadband wireless network, is using OFDM.
So no matter what vendor wins the battle for broadband over the next five years, you can be fairly certain that OFDM will be there as well.
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+ TrackBacks (0) | Category: Cellular | WiMAX & Fixed Wireless
November 4, 2004
Posted by John Yunker
This Business Week writer tries to decrease his electronics payload (phone, computer, camera) from 25 pounds to just under 10 pounds. He pulls it off, but not without some hi-tech soul searching.
My first laptop was the Macintosh Portable (circa 1990), which weighed in at 16.5 pounds.
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| Category: Cellular | Wi-Fi
Posted by John Yunker
Computerworld recently conducted field testing of AT&T Wirelees' EDGE and UMTS networks. EDGE is available nationwide while UMTS is only live in six cities. Here are the speeds they saw overall:
ComputerWorld compared the UMTS speeds to DSL, which I would say is a stretch. I suspect the favorable UMTS speeds were in no small part due to the low uptake overall. And I would say the same thing about the high rates seen by early testers (myself included) of Verizon Wireless' EV-DO network. Still, EV-DO on a bad day is going to be faster that UMTS on an average day.
In the end, these numbers are just that, numbers. Everything hinges on what type of application you're trying to support. If all you're doing is basic Google searching (which consumes very little data), you should have a pleasant experience. Video streaming is going to be a bit more challenging.
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| Category: Cellular
September 14, 2004
Posted by John Yunker
The convergence of communications technologies is often portrayed as a wonderful thing for consumers. In many respects it is; the bundling of services often results in cheaper individual services and fewer bills in the mail. For example, I now pay for cable TV, voice and Internet access with one bill. But from the service provider's point of view, convergence can be downright messy; we now have cable companies selling voice services, phone companies selling media content, and wireless carriers headed into the fixed wireless (DSL substitution) market.
This recent article in The Wall Street Journal hits on the many of the major issues. Here's an article excerpt:
Over the past four years, the nation's largest phone companies have lost local phone lines by the millions as consumers fled to cellphones and e-mail. Many customers are giving up their second, and even their primary, phone lines. The intrusion by cable companies only made things worse, forcing the Bells to expand into other areas that promise more growth, such as wireless, high-speed Internet and television.
Covergence may not be pretty, but it sure does make the telecommunications industry exciting once again. These carriers have no choice but be creative and aggressive or they will be left behind; this will result in better prices for consumers and more creative services. Convergence isn't always pretty because creativity isn't always pretty.
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| Category: Big Picture | Cellular | VoIP | Wi-Fi | WiMAX & Fixed Wireless
August 24, 2004
Posted by John Yunker
I just received a "pre-sale" email from T-Mobile for the new HP iPAQ. Here is the promotional page:
The $79.99/month rate is a not-so-subtle stab at Verizon Wireless' BroadbandAccess plan (also $79.99/month).
As Verizon Wireless expands its EV-DO network and T-Mobile expands its Wi-Fi network, it will be very interesting to see which way the much-coveted business traveler turns. It's way too early to predict a winner, but the stage is clearly set.
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| Category: Cellular | Wi-Fi
August 16, 2004
Posted by John Yunker
T-Mobile is pre-promoting the HP IPAQ h6315, arguably the mother of all bundled devices. It packs Bluetooth, Wi-Fi and GPRS into one handheld device. There are countless articles out already about this device (pictured below), but what I'm most intrigued about is not the bundling of features but the bundling of services.
T-Mobile will naturally offer a bundled service that combines voice, Internet (GPRS and Wi-Fi) and email. The device will cost $500 but T-Mobile hasn't announced a service price yet. Some say the price will be similar to the rate that Verizon Wireless charges for its EV-DO service: $80/month. This would certainly be the safe way for T-Mobile to proceed; after all, there are thousands of early adopters out there chomping at the bit to try this thing (I'm chomping but I'm also cheap, so I'll be a holdout).
A bolder pricing move would be $60/month or less. This would amount to a savings for subscribers who currently pay for cellular at roughly $50/month plus another $20/month for Wi-Fi. A $60/month or less fee would further drive down the perceived cost of Wi-Fi. At $60/month, Wi-Fi would appear to cost around $10/month, making it the best deal going, not only in the US, but globally.
Bundling is now the rage among carriers of all stripes -- from cable to cellular. As more devices ship bundled with Wi-Fi, Wi-Fi will become increasingly bundled with services, and at lower and lower monthly rates.
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| Category: Big Picture | Cellular | Wi-Fi
August 8, 2004
Posted by John Yunker
There is a new player on the wireless remote access field. The company has actually been around for a number of years, but only in the fixed line market. The company calls itself Aramova (formerly known as Rockstar Software; I liked the old name better).
I spoke with them recently to find out why they feel there is room for yet another player. After all, they're joining a field that already includes:
- iPass
- GoRemote (formerly GRIC)
- Boingo
- Wayport
- PCTEL
To some extent, Aramova had little choice but get into the wireless market. Fixed line carriers want to start offering their subscribers wireless packages and if Aramove doesn't offer them a solutiion, a competitor certainly will. This highlights yet again the blurring between fixed and mobile networks and the increasing level of competition between companies that up until recently rarely ran into one another.
On Monday, Aramova will announce a deal with Dutch mobile carrier KPN. The carrier is going to use Aramova's technology to provide remote connectivity across GPRS, UMTS and Wi-Fi networks.
According to the forthcoming press release "KPN customers will be able to simply connect to the Internet through their laptops using a dedicated PCMCIA card or GPRS/UMTS handset without encountering the complexities associated with the installation or configuration of their hardware, choosing the right network, switching between these networks, or enjoying value-added services. KPN will soon be introducing numerous non-voice products and business services for their customers, which will be enabled through Aramova’s advanced mobility solutions."
What I find particularly interesting about the KPN deal is that KPN had also been working with iPass. I asked Aramova how they managed to win out over iPass and they cited a number of factors, such as flexible software and "network agnostic" subscriber software clients. I sitll need to follow up with KPN to learn more, but I think the most relevant advantage is that Aramova provides only the software, not the network, while iPass provides both. So KPN can buy Aramova's client software and then strike deals with any number of network providers, including iPass even. Looking ahead, I wonder if iPass will struggle to sell in to carriers because they compete to some extent with the carriers. After all, iPass has great success selling its network to enterprises, the same folks that carriers also want to do deals with. Aramova, by staying out of service provider business, is free of that overhead.
I have not tested Aramova's software client yet. I have been testing the iPass client and have found it very usable and the network is by far the largest I've seen so far.
More of these "client wars" in the weeks ahead...
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| Category: Cellular | Wi-Fi
July 15, 2004
Posted by John Yunker
Japanese communications giant NTT DoCoMo just announced the coming release of the N900iL, a dual network 3G FOMA handset that will also operate on Wi-Fi networks.
However, this phone is clearly only designed for corporate users, preferably those who spend most of their time on campus. Why? Because the phones won't operate on public Wi-Fi networks (with the possible exception of an NTT network). A company needs to install a special server that will allow the phone user to switch between Wi-Fi calls and 3G calls, as well as browse the Internet. The features look pretty nifty, but anyone hoping to make a free call from a Starbucks is out of luck.
Now I am fully aware that mobile operators don't want to support devices that will cannibalize their voice business. Operators lives and die by "minutes of use" - the more minutes a subscriber uses, the more revenue for the operator. And yet minutes of use is such a short-sighted way to view a subscriber.
Consider wired VoIP. AT&T has embraced VoIP knowing full well that it will eat away at its long-distance business. AT&T wisely figures that if anyone is going to cannablize AT&T's business, it might as well be AT&T. I recently signed up to AT&T's CallVantage service and have been very pleased so far. The interesting thing in my mind is that now that long distance is unlimited as part of my plan, I find my minutes of use are a great deal higher than when I paid by the minute. We are quickly headed toward a flat-rate communications world whether mobile operators like it or not.
I'm not surprised to see mobile carriers resist supporting VoIP over Wi-Fi devices. In the US, however, I'm quite confident that even though most operators will resist supporting VoIP, one bold operator will push ahead and leave the rest behind. My prediction is that T-Mobile will be the first carrier to support VoIP (with limitations) followed by Verizon Wireless and Nextel
As for NTT DoCoMo. This new phone will make a great walkie talkie for corporate campuses, but will ultimately prove too limiting to users who actually go on a business trip or two. Motorola and Nokia will also be releasing phones that support Wi-Fi - perhaps they will find an operator willing to take more than a baby step.
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| Category: Cellular | VoIP | Wi-Fi
July 12, 2004
Posted by John Yunker
Regarding Wi-Fi, T-Mobile has been strangely silent in 2004. They’ve issued a few boilerplate releases about Starbucks and Kinko’s but nothing significant otherwise. Could it be that they are hatching a major roaming deal with Wayport? I’d like to believe so, but I’m now thinking that the operator is awaiting word from Germany.
T-Mobile’s parent, Deutsche Telekom, recently announced that its carrier services division, T-Systems, has made good progress with its WLAN Roaming Platform (WRP). This neutral host network has 10,000 global hotspots either live or under negotiation. Partners include Portugal Telecom WiFi, Connexion by Boeing, All Telecom, Ozone and Lattelekom. No signs of Wayport though, which brings us back to the US.
Wayport’s recent McDonald’s Wi-Fi deployment win, coupled with its new business model, puts pressure on T-Mobile to respond in kind. The operator needs to expand its network by cutting a roaming deal with Wayport; there is simply no way around it. The T-Mobile has told me in the past that it is concerned about the quality of service on networks that it doesn’t control. It is rightfully proud of the T1 lines that provide backhaul to its 3,100 Starbucks locations. But the fact of the matter is that business travelers would rather have a slow connection than no connection at all.
The Wayport roaming deal will happen, but it might be driven by Germany at this point, which may mean more months of relative silence from T-Mobile. I don’t believe the roaming deal will be bilateral. T-Mobile may be better off just coughing up the cash to Wayport and then promoting the heck out of its dominant US network.
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| Category: Cellular | Wi-Fi
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