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October 2, 2004
The WiMAX Backlash Has Begun
Posted by John Yunker
A number of wireless pundits are weighing in against WiMAX - most notably Om Malik . He makes some good points; Intel has created prematurely high expectations and WiMAX has plenty of hurdles ahead of it.
I expect the WiMAX backlash to grow in momentum; I predicted as much 10 months ago. But I would not bet against WiMAX in the long run. Earlier this week I met with three US wireless ISPS (WISPs) who will all be migrating to WiMAX, first as an enterprise fixed wireless solution, next as a Wi-Fi backhaul solution.
Regarding unlecensed spectrum, 5.8 will work. Yes, there are limitations and intererence will remain a wild card, but in the US alone the unlicensed WISP industry is well over $200 million -- and mostly due to organic growth. The RBOCs aren't anxious to jump into the fixed wireless market for a number of reasons that I won't go into here, but that doesn't mean the market isn't viable. RBOCs are not always a good bellweather of an emerging market.
Now what about this notion of WiMAX replacing cable and DSL? I don't expect much progress in this regard. DSL prices will continue to drop and cable pipes will continue to expand. But as I've said repeatedly, you don't need the DSL and cable market to be a success in the US.
Roughly 30 million out of 120 million households have broadband right now. There is plenty of room for growth yet. And then there are the municipalities who want wireless broadband for security, emergency services, asset tracking, VoIP. I just don't see wireless carriers meeting their needs at the right price. WiMAX is the ultimate "home networking" technology for communities and campuses.
Now let's assume that DSL and cable eventually own every household in the US. Can WiMAX still be wildly successful? Absolutely. WiMAX stands a reasonably good chance of replacing Wi-Fi in the home and in consumer devices. Wired backhaul or wireless backhaul, it really doesn't matter in the long run. WiMAX has plenty of opportunities ahead.
Yes, there are plenty of road bumps as well. But don't bury WiMAX before it has shipped.
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| Category: WiMAX & Fixed Wireless
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Russell Shaw is a specialist in mobile computing, telephony, networking and covers these fields regularly for numerous print and online publications. Russ writes the popular IP Telephony blog on ZDNet and contributes regularly to The Industry Standard blog as well. Author of seven books, Russ' latest book is Wireless Networking Made Easy.
John Yunker is president of 
