John Robb of Global Guerillas has posted a blog entry that should curl your hair. (The picture is from Drexel University.)
The control over the price of oil is in now in the hands of global guerrillas -- the open source, system disrupting, transnational crime fueled, sons of global fragmentation covered by this author. These actors can now, at will, curtail the supply of oil through low tech attacks on facilities in Iraq, Nigeria, central Asia, and India. The amount of oil effectively under their control exceeds five million barrels a day, more than Saudi Arabia's two million barrels a day of swing production.
What this means, simply, is that alternative energy research is no longer “something nice” to have, or that switching away from fossil fuels should be a goal.
It means that alternative fuels are now vital to our national security. No, let's be blunt. They are our economic security.
There should no longer be any question about this, anywhere, especially not in Washington.
More important it’s vital that we admit industrial energy, energy produced at major sources and then distributed, is a threat to our national security. It doesn’t matter if we drill in ANWR or anywhere else. So long as we’re wedded, not just to fossil fuels, but the industrial networks that produce them, we’re vulnerable.
We’re more than vulnerable. We’re naked, tied to stakes in the ground, and the ants are coming to get us.
The only cure is technology. But in order for technology to be unleashed, in order to assure that it’s American technology which dominates, there must be incentives.
The easiest incentive to introduce is this. A floor for energy prices. Prices below that floor are taxed. But a long-term floor is the only way to assure suppliers of alternative sources – solar, wind, thermal, mice running in treadmills – that they will have a market. Without a floor, any temporary dip in oil prices kills the alternatives, which is unacceptable.
How do we pay for all this? By eliminating current incentives for oil and gas production. Let them pay full market costs for everything.
Right now, folks, the American economy is in thrall to Saudi Arabia. But it could be much worse. And it will get much worse unless we act now.
Failure is not an option. The War in Iraq we can lose (believe it or not). This one, uh uh.
Dana Blankenhorn has been a business journalist for over 25 years and has covered the online world professionally since 1985. He founded the "Interactive Age Daily" for CMP Media, and has written for the Chicago Tribune, Advertising Age, and dozens of other publications over the years.
1. BillK on January 24, 2006 06:46 PM writes...
In Euroland the gas price is currently around 2.5 times US equivalent price (used to be about 3 times) and we still have traffic jams, with the number of cars on the road increasing every year.
So if the US were gradually to triple the gas price you would see little change in car usage.
Sure, you would get some more smaller cars, more economical engines, more motorcycles and scooters, etc. But overall everything would adjust to the new price level.
You need to do something *much* more drastic if you want to change the US dependence on oil.
Permalink to Comment2. hellsoap on January 25, 2006 03:25 AM writes...
A floor for energy prices? That's what Enron did.
Permalink to Comment3. Jason on January 25, 2006 09:32 AM writes...
Sweden is aiming to be the first country "oil-free" by 2020 according to a report on Treehugger:
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2006/01/sweden_raises_t.php
I have also heard that Iceland plans the same, but with a more modest deadline of 2050.
http://www.detnews.com/2005/autosinsider/0501/14/autos-60181.htm
Permalink to Comment4. dennis on January 30, 2006 08:22 AM writes...
I'm an American who lived in Germany for three years, and I'm getting pretty tired of the "prices higher in Europe" argument. I didn't have a car my entire time in Germany, and it was fine. You can get anywhere in Europe via public transportation, and cities are more dense. American cities are a lot more spread-out, and the country as a whole is huge. Europeans drive by choice, Americans by necessity, except in a few cities like New York. Don't even get me started on states like Texas.
Permalink to Comment5. Russ Martin on February 3, 2006 06:56 PM writes...
Dana, you are 100% right. I have read 2 books by Richard Heinberg that outline the crisis. (The Party's Over and Powerdown). There are other books on this subject.
The basic problem is that production of oil has peaked and consumption has not. There are no known reserves that will make up the shortfall as China and India come on line and demand energy to raise their standard of living. Our entire civilization is based on cheap energy and the petroleum which provides it is running out.
The only way out of this crisis is to develop renewable sources and also stop using as much energy.
That means that all of the money spent on the war in Iraq, which is basically an attempt to protect the oil supply, would have been better spent in developing renewable alternatives and promoting extreme energy conservation.
Another area to eliminate would be subsidies to agro-business, which is also based on cheap petroleum for fuel and fertilizer.
Permalink to Comment