Corante

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Dana Dana Blankenhorn has been a business journalist for over 25 years and has covered the online world professionally since 1985. He founded the "Interactive Age Daily" for CMP Media, and has written for the Chicago Tribune, Advertising Age, and dozens of other publications over the years.
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Moore’s Law defines the history of technology. It held that the number of circuits etched on a given piece of silicon could double every 18 months as far as its author, Intel co-founder Gordon Moore, could see. Moore’s Law has spawned constant revolutions since then, not just in computing but in communications, in science, in a host of areas. Moore’s Law applies to radios, and to optical fiber, but there are some areas where it doesn’t apply. In this blog we’ll take a daily look at new implications of Moore’s Law in real time, as it rolls forward to create our future.
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January 05, 2006

The Google Bubble

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Posted by Dana Blankenhorn

bubble.jpgWe haven't had that kind of spirit here since, 1999.

And watch out. It lies like cocaine.

How else do you explain Google supposedly heading to $600/share? How else do you explain a company with $500,000 in revenues over its entire lifetime thinking it can go public at $270 million? How else do you explain rumors of Google replacing the phone company with WiFi or bringing out its own PC? Where else do you get rumors of Microsoft offering $80 billion for Yahoo, and Yahoo (worth under $60 billion currently) saying no?

Now Google is not to blame for this, and Google has a responsibility to shareholders to use its virtual wealth and create long-term value, something it is trying hard to do. Bubbles are not born in Silicon Valley. They are born on Wall Street. They are born by salesmen, stock salesmen, people pretending that "this time will be different," as they've done since the 19th century.

People are always taken in by the claims. Short term profits are always generated. Sometimes long term value is left behind.

But bubbles are bubbles, and bubbles pop. I think Larry Page and Sergey Brin know that. I think Steve Case knew it, too, which is why he grabbed Time while the grabbing was good.

Do you? What will happen to you when the bubble pops? Do you know who will be left holding the bag?

Not your broker.

Comments (1) + TrackBacks (0) | Category: Economics | History | Internet | Investment


COMMENTS

1. goog on January 6, 2006 06:55 PM writes...

so many rumors about GOOG, but there's one thing that i don't understand. Wallstreet is a lot about hype, we all know that, and yet we still put money in it. What goes up, must come down, we all know that too. So even if GOOG is a bubble, who cares? As long as one jumps off the train, before_ it crashes, i don't really see where the problem is. One should just be careful_ and not risk all his money, that's basically all.

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