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December 09, 2005
Moore's Handwriting On the Wall
Posted by Dana Blankenhorn
The market isn't stupid.
The market understands Moore's Law. It sees through the Bells' rhetoric.
The market understands that the three-year, replaceable property of a wireless network is a better economic bet than the 30-year old depreciation schedules the Bells must keep.
The market votes with its dollars, and those with a Clue follow.
AllTel, in Little Rock, has been accused of many things over the years, but stupidity is not one of them. So look here. They are dumping their wireline business and becoming a wireless outfit. It's all being spun-off to some schlubs in Texas, and even though AllTel shareholders will own 85% of the resulting firm the meaning here is clear -- sell it.
I have been writing ever since I came here (before actually) that Moore's Law means wireless, that wires don't work economically. Do you really need more proof? If you own stock in BellSouth, in Verizon, or in SBC (excuse me, AT&T) sell it.
Wires are just so 20th century.
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Dana Blankenhorn has been a business journalist for over 25 years and has covered the online world professionally since 1985. He founded the "Interactive Age Daily" for CMP Media, and has written for the Chicago Tribune, Advertising Age, and dozens of other publications over the years.
1. Jesse Kopelman on December 9, 2005 06:13 PM writes...
On one hand, I find your position too extreme. After all, there needs to be some wires (long haul high traffic applications) out there. One the other hand, maybe you are not going far enough. Thanks to the packet revolution, services are now network indifferent. You don't need to own the network to provide a service on it. This indicates that in the end the owning of network infrastructure can never be a growth business. Perhaps you should be writing that owning your own network is so 20th century.
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