Intel's strategy of delivering a fixed 802.16 WiMax standard, then moving immediately to a mobile version, is fizzling.
There's not enough equipment for the fixed, because everyone is waiting for the mobile. And anything for the mobile has to face down cellular providers (potential Intel customers) who have lots of weapons to knock it down.
While hotspots are becoming hotzones, and cities are handing out franchises (exclusives on rights of way and poles) to WiFi everything in their borders, the whole thing looks ready to collapse as SBC and Verizon (AT&T and MCI) consolidate their control of the backhaul market, then squeeze prices.
Here's a dirty secret for the boys and girls at Intel. You're no good at defining standards. Your single success, the PC standard, was set by Microsoft, not by you. And now you've lost big hunks of that market to AMD.
What you need, more than anything, is a big vendor willing to place big bets on whatever wireless standard you choose to set (and you need to set one, not several). If you think you're that vendor, you're kidding yourself. You're an ingredient brand, not a product brand, that's not your business.
Want to buy someone whose business it is? That's another discussion. But remember, you're going to have to find someone you can back to the hilt, someone you'll pour billions into without asking questions about what you don't understand, which is consumer marketing.
If Intel doesn't get wireless right soon, it's going to be in big, big trouble, as AMD expands its Dresden fab and starts supplying what the market wants -- faster, cheaper processors for running Windows.
Right now is where we find out whether Otellini has what his predecessors had. We'll know if Intel's over the hill, and if its mind makes a promise that its body can't fill. The next few decisions will make his bones, or confine a huge company to also-ran status.
My own opinion, for what it's worth. Call Google. Put their brand on your WiFi gear, on your WiMax networks. Make their dark fiber the phone company. And work with them to franchise the solution so anyone with backhaul can compete effectively.
Dana Blankenhorn has been a business journalist for over 25 years and has covered the online world professionally since 1985. He founded the "Interactive Age Daily" for CMP Media, and has written for the Chicago Tribune, Advertising Age, and dozens of other publications over the years.
1. Jesse Kopelman on November 9, 2005 03:32 PM writes...
I think you're wrong. Every mesh WiFi vendor has announced that they are going with fixed WiMax for the mesh portion (and keeping WIFi for the access portion). This is a win-win for Intel as it allows them to sell WiMax chips to these vendors and squeeze some more life out of Centrino. When mobile WiMax comes out in 2007, they will have had plenty of time to develop a solid WiMax version of Centrino to take advantage of it. The key to any new wireless technology is that it can't take off until you have viable (in terms of both price and capability) products at both the infrastructure and user end. This is why its taken 3G (ready on the infrastructure end since 2001) so long to take off. Things are lined up very well for Intel, now all they have to do is execute.
Permalink to Comment2. Robert Young on November 9, 2005 06:20 PM writes...
While I agree with what Jesse is saying to a large extent, I do also agree that Intel needs a big partner... one that shares the threats posed by the telco & cable duopoly. And IMHO, it's time for Newstel... http://gigaom.com/2005/08/13/murdoch-wimax-and-the-two-way-web/
Permalink to Comment3. Jacomo on November 10, 2005 08:30 AM writes...
The 2 main issues Intel needs to content with are:
1.The delayed (and yes it will be delayed) release of certified WiMAX Mobile (802.16e) products. This will be due to the rapid growth of demand for Wireless Mesh networks based on the incredible resilient WiFi Alliance and the on going innovation of IEEE standards in the 802.11 series products. 802.11i and e are good examples. ALso, watch Airgo ignore the effort by Intel, Atheros and Broadcom (breakaway effort)to undermine and or delay the efforts on the IEEE 802.11n to create a high bandwidth (100Mbps+)standard, and go after the market directly with its own proprietary chips. Note this fact: Service providers deploying Wireless Mesh Networks in a Metro market do not care if your Mesh Node is proprietary (802.11n) as long as it is compatible with the ubiquitous 802.11a/b/g customer access devices out there today. Airgo is already releasing their 3rd Generation True MIMO chips (see Netgears announcement). Along that same line and of interest to our Service Provider community, is the fact that Linksys/Cisco, a new member of the Intel lead breakaway 802.11n mentioned above, has even re-done their Literature on their SRX Wireless MIMO Router, taking out all reference to the Airgo True MIMO chips they touted so higly earlier this year on reelase of the SRX.
2. Intel is concerned about Qualcomm brilliant move in acquiring Flarion. Qualcomm quickly realized that WiMAX or even the Airgo 802.11 series products, when deployed, will effectively overun their CDMA based Cell data products. Flarion gives them a quick entree into the Broadband Data world with 2+ Mbps over a Cell based spectrum.
What a great industry to be involved in.
Jacomo
Permalink to CommentIntegr8 Ltd
4. Jacomo on November 10, 2005 08:31 AM writes...
The 2 main issues Intel needs to content with are:
1.The delayed (and yes it will be delayed) release of certified WiMAX Mobile (802.16e) products. This will be due to the rapid growth of demand for Wireless Mesh networks based on the incredible resilient WiFi Alliance and the on going innovation of IEEE standards in the 802.11 series products. 802.11i and e are good examples. ALso, watch Airgo ignore the effort by Intel, Atheros and Broadcom (breakaway effort)to undermine and or delay the efforts on the IEEE 802.11n to create a high bandwidth (100Mbps+)standard, and go after the market directly with its own proprietary chips. Note this fact: Service providers deploying Wireless Mesh Networks in a Metro market do not care if your Mesh Node is proprietary (802.11n) as long as it is compatible with the ubiquitous 802.11a/b/g customer access devices out there today. Airgo is already releasing their 3rd Generation True MIMO chips (see Netgears announcement). Along that same line and of interest to our Service Provider community, is the fact that Linksys/Cisco, a new member of the Intel lead breakaway 802.11n mentioned above, has even re-done their Literature on their SRX Wireless MIMO Router, taking out all reference to the Airgo True MIMO chips they touted so higly earlier this year on reelase of the SRX.
2. Intel is concerned about Qualcomm brilliant move in acquiring Flarion. Qualcomm quickly realized that WiMAX or even the Airgo 802.11 series products, when deployed, will effectively overun their CDMA based Cell data products. Flarion gives them a quick entree into the Broadband Data world with 2+ Mbps over a Cell based spectrum.
What a great industry to be involved in.
Jacomo
Permalink to CommentIntegr8 Ltd
5. Jesse Kopelman on November 10, 2005 04:11 PM writes...
Robert, what about Clearwire? People are underestimating them like they did Nextel in the 90s. I think it will work out the same way this time. One day they will wake up and realize the little kid they didn't let join their pickup game was just voted to the All American squad.
Permalink to Comment6. Robert Young on November 11, 2005 12:50 AM writes...
Jacomo,
Your first point is speculative, yet fascinating!
As to your second point... agreed that Qualcomm's chess move was brilliant. However, I'm not so sure that reliance on IP (patents) is going to be as leverageable in an open (vs. walled gardened) environment. In any event, WiMax wins at the end of day.
Permalink to Comment7. Robert Young on November 11, 2005 12:56 AM writes...
And Jesse,
I haven't kept up with Clearwire in the past year, so it's tough for me to provide an opinion. But generally speaking, I think the combo of DirecTV and Clearwire can potentially make a lot of sense.
Permalink to Comment8. Wireless Search on November 11, 2005 02:04 AM writes...
Well its a waiting game to see whats going to happen in the wireless and mobile industry, but be rest assured these technologies are going to impact the way business models are done. These companies have the revenue and if they supply the right ingredient (Good User Experience) it will be a win situation for everyone. There is enough slices of the pie, however who adds the right topping will edge ahead, and this is where research, development, and money come into play. Think of the Possibilities, oh yeah and who has the backing $$$
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