I've always had a soft spot for Gainesville, Georgia economic analyst Robert Prechter.

Back when I started in journalism, at the old Houston Business Journal, Prechter was the "super bear" we'd turn to when we wanted some "the sky is falling" quote. Bulls are usually right, but when bears, especially Super Bears like Prechter, are right, they're really right. Starting in 1981, in Houston, Prechter was really, really right.

Prechter bases his analysis on the "Elliott Wave," an idea from R.N. Elliott that economic cycles run in six regular patterns -- small up, small down, big ups, big down, then super ups, super down.

The Great Depression was a Super Down. The Panic of 1837 was a Super Down. Prechter figures we're about due.

One reason you haven't heard more from Prechter lately is because of his 1995 book, At the Crest of the Tidal Wave. Those who took Prechter's warning of a bust when he made it missed out on the 1990s boom, missed out entirely.

But eventually even Cassandra is right, and when she's right, boy is she right. Thus, Prechter is back with "Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression." He autographed a copy for me. Thanks. I read it.

Prechter's argument hasn't changed. The Fed is phony, money is phony, when the bust happens terrible things do, too. He warned of the Dot Bomb before the Dot Boom, and the resulting recession may have been mild only because of the Real Estate Bubble, but this time, this time for sure.

So what do you do?

Can't hold stocks. OK. Can't trust bonds. Cash is good, but if the government decides to bugger the currency as Argentina did in the 1990s that's no good. Forget real estate. Gold? Not as bad as some investments, but not a winner, either.

In the end, Prechter recommends short-term government bonds in "safe havens" like Switzerland and Singapore, with cash as an early-stage play. Sell it, now. Sell it all. Get liquid. Then put that liquid where the U.S. government can't get at it.

It's easier said than done. You will look crazy doing it. Prechter, like me, has predicted 9 of the last 3 recessions, and the world may not actually come to an end.

But if you believe it might, and you do what Prechter says to do now, you'll be OK. Raise high your personal levees and watch the suckers drown around you.

What do I think? I think prudence is definitely called for. I think recessions are reflections of the progress which proceeded them, and I agree this one is built on sand -- FNMA guarantees that will be worthless once prices turn.

But I also know this. There are no guarantees, even if you take all Prechter's advice, that you'll get through the next bust alive, let alone "prosper." I saw the Houston Oil Crash, and I saw the Dot Bomb. Knowing what was coming didn't save me then, and knowing by itself won't save me now.

Hedged bets don't win big, but they don't lose big, either.