Two really stupid predications crossed my desk this morning. (The image is by Katie Guenther. From the University of Vermont.)

1. Laptops are about to be replaced by mobile phones.
   
2. Mobile phones are going to take the music download market from the iPod.
   

While a straight look at technology and the desires of consumers could lead you to these conclusions, they're dumber than dirt.

Let's start with the first one.

Even if people start leaving their laptops at home, laptop sales are not threatened by mobile phones, because laptops are replacing desktops. It's basic ergonomics. Where does your lap go when you stand up? If you're standing, or walking, you can't use a laptop, you have to use some sort of handheld device. As PDA functionality moves into phones, as the two markets merge, then, yes, phones become the handheld of choice. But that doesn't mean they replace laptops. It means they replace PDAs.

Now for the second prediction.

It's pure carrier FUD.

Cellular carriers continue demanding control over the user experience when you're using a phone. This hasn't changed, and consumers know that.

Consumers, meanwhile, demand control over their music experience. It's not the iPod form factor that makes the difference. It's the lighter DRM of Apple's iTunes store, and the feeling that Apple is trying to be on your side.

The question isn't, phone or iPod? The question is, cellphone store or iTunes? That's an easy question to answer, and it's going to remain easy to answer, so long as carriers demand a big cut of the revenue, acting as another middleman in your music transaction.

When you buy from iTunes, the only folks involved in the sale are the store and the supplier. The ISP isn't sitting there demanding a cut.

When you buy over a phone, the cellular carrier is demanding a cut. A big cut. They're also laying on a heavy DRM that won't let you take that song and put it, say, on your PC, or on your iPod.

So where are you going to buy your music from?

This is something market analysts know in their guts, but won't report to the public or the media, because it's not what they're paid to do. They're paid by their clients, and since Apple is doing fine it doesn't need to buy their services. Cellular companies do.

The market research companies are carrying the carriers' water, and in the process they're corrupting themselves. They're selling their credibility to clients, so the rest of us have no need to believe them.