The 1990s were all about the Internet. (The picture is from a great site called i-Learnt, for teachers interested in technology.)
This decade is all about gadgets.
Digital cameras, musical phones, PSPs, iPods -- these are the things that define our time. While they can be connected to networks their functions are mainly those of clients.
In some ways it's a "back to the future" time for technology. We haven't had such a client-driven decade since the 1970s, when it was all about the PC.
In some ways this was inevitable. The major network trend is wireless, so we need a new class of unwired clients.
But in some ways this was not inevitable. If we had more robust local connectivities than the present 1.5 Mbps downloads (that's the normal local speed limit) we would have many more opportunities to create networked applications.
And that's really the missing word in this decade -- applications. Most of what we've been doing has been replicating what was done before, only with smaller devices. Software development, especially network software development, has not moved forward. We have consolidation in the software space because we don't have enough innovation there.
Why don't we have more network innovation? It's because networks aren't getting faster in the local loop. In fact they're growing slower. Spam and malware have reduced the amount of network work anyone can do in a day.
But we've also had deliberate policies of fighting network applications from our government, on behalf of copyright holders, on behalf of Homeland Security. These choices have been approved by most Americans, and America has dominated technology since Moore was a pup.
The result of these deliberate policy choices is we won't dominate any more. Other countries will get better, faster networks, and their people will create the network applications that drive the next era of innovation.
That's a Wake Up Call coming for American technology it will be unable to ignore, just as there is a wake up call coming for the U.S. economy in general, as housing prices halt their advance and the debts come home to be paid.
Directing the resulting anger toward solutions, toward software and positive technology development, will be the greatest challenge of our lives. It will also be the great challenge in the lives of those you're teaching.
Dana Blankenhorn has been a business journalist for over 25 years and has covered the online world professionally since 1985. He founded the "Interactive Age Daily" for CMP Media, and has written for the Chicago Tribune, Advertising Age, and dozens of other publications over the years.
1. Lyle Clarke on June 10, 2005 04:28 PM writes...
Even if we had faster networks we would still have the problem of who to trust with what. Relevant applications running on a network require relevant data, and no-one wants to enter everything again, by hand, using the interface of the day, or to give personal info or surveillance opportunities away willy nilly. I believe that if you can deliver robust synchronisation combined with privacy you can trust that applications, bandwidth, reliability etc will follow of its own accord.
Permalink to Comment2. Tom Mariner on June 17, 2005 11:51 AM writes...
We won't change the policies and therefore we won't dominate any more. Like a substance abuser, the vast majority won't even know they are toast until we have hit rock bottom. And by then we will face an impossible uphill battle to regain advantage against competitors who will fiercely defend the benefits technology has given them.
The Far East is so confident that our leaders will continue to fixate on interpreting and enforcing laws that they brazenly announce that they will have the technological and economic lead in a single generation. How distainful do you have to be to tell your competitor exactly how you are going to reduce him to poverty? Their plan, frankly, is colonializm. They are telling us that that are forcing us to buy their "gadgets" then using our money to corner the market on raw materials.
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