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Dana Dana Blankenhorn has been a business journalist for over 25 years and has covered the online world professionally since 1985. He founded the "Interactive Age Daily" for CMP Media, and has written for the Chicago Tribune, Advertising Age, and dozens of other publications over the years.
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Moore’s Law defines the history of technology. It held that the number of circuits etched on a given piece of silicon could double every 18 months as far as its author, Intel co-founder Gordon Moore, could see. Moore’s Law has spawned constant revolutions since then, not just in computing but in communications, in science, in a host of areas. Moore’s Law applies to radios, and to optical fiber, but there are some areas where it doesn’t apply. In this blog we’ll take a daily look at new implications of Moore’s Law in real time, as it rolls forward to create our future.
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May 04, 2005

Social Mobility

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Posted by Dana Blankenhorn

Dept_Store_anti-monopoly.jpgThe strength of an economy, like that of a society, depends on social mobility. That means the poor can rise to wealth. It also means the wealthy can end up poor. (This old cartoon, from what folks like to call THE Ohio State University, pre-dates Wal-Mart by generations.)

A recent online conversation with Vijay Gill brought this home to me. The topic was actually our recent piece on The Myth of Scarcity. I liked it, posted it to Dave Farber's list, and Vijay responded quite thoughtfully, his point being that telecommunications is hard, some parts are scarce, and real technical knowledge is even scarcer. Maintaining total connectivity in the last mile without protecting the monopoly is harder than I make it sound.

This set me thinking in two directions at once.

First, much of the telecomm plant today is useless. If it was put in there for phone service it's useless, because voice is a low-bandwidth Internet service. The fast way to write-off that lost gear is through bankruptcy, another reason why the Bells must die.

Second, skill needs social mobility. When Dilbert is forced to work for the pointy-headed boss nothing good gets done. (Let's not forget Scott Adams came up with the strip while working at the old Pacific Bell.) Breaking up the monopolies is the best way to free the Dilberts.

Both these points are related. Oppression is directly related to inflexibility. Inflexibility is bad for people, and very bad in business. When organizations refuse to change they must be allowed to fail, just as a rich drunk should be allowed to fall into the gutter, both for his own sake and as an example to others.

The problems in American business and politics today are related. They come down to a lack of social mobility. Big companies are being allowed, by government, to hold monopolies and not fight for them. This is true in the media, in telecommunications, in software -- monopolies and shared monopolies are as destructive as the Trusts of Teddy Roosevelt's time.

What's needed in America today, more than anything else, is some old-fashioned trust-busting. We need more competition, more competition for wealth, for power, and for markets. Without it we're getting lazy, we're getting fat, and we're getting beat by people who do have to fight for their daily bread.

So break up the phone trusts. Then let's go about the work of breaking up the other trusts that hold competition back, and make sure they don't get another chance to re-form.

Comments (3) + TrackBacks (0) | Category: Business Models | Business Strategy | Economics | Internet | Telecommunications


COMMENTS

1. Darrell Greenwood on May 8, 2005 10:09 AM writes...

You wrote

"First, much of the telecomm plant today is useless."

I disagree. Much of the telecom plant is cable and right of way comprising a natural monopoly.

The pair of wires running to my house, installed in the fifties, now brings double the revenue to the local telco. From $35 for phone only, to $70 for phone and ADSL.

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2. Jesse Kopelman on May 9, 2005 02:33 PM writes...

Darrell, you do realize that a lot of new equipment had to be installed at the CO (central office) before those wires could bring you ADSL? You are defintiely correct that the wires and right of ways are more valuable than ever, but when people talk about physical plant they are usually refering to the equipment at the CO, much of which went obsolete years ago.

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3. Darrell Greenwood on May 13, 2005 07:44 PM writes...

I was trying to point out the plummeting cost of DSLAMs (they can stuff hundreds of them into a small curbside box now) at the CO, against the rising cost of installing pairs to the home.

A DSLAM shouldn't cost more than the matching modem, so for a $100 the telco can double the revenue of a pair. My pair at 14000 feet would cost many thousands to install from scratch.

The most valuable plant telco has are the right of ways and copper. Virtually impossible to duplicate. They chuck the equipment every few years at the CO because of Moore's Law just as you throw out your old computers. All the annual reports I read for my 40 years working in communications did not restrict "physical plant" to simply the equipment in the CO.

My own guess is that less than 20% of the physical plant replacement cost is CO equipment in my telco. (There are a lot of accounting games played in the regulated telco business, "replacement cost" is a phrase I chose to get at something real)

Question for Dana. I had to throw away the address I used to post the first time here and only used here because it was spammed. I came back to see where the spider had scraped my address but it is not visible. Any thoughts, just out of curiosity?

Cheers,

Darrell

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