The point lost by my stupid mistake is that Google, despite its enormous short-term success, is showing cracks in the armor.

The performance of Blogger, and Google's relation to RSS, illustrates the point.

When a big company takes over a small outfit, because it wants into its niche, this is usually a signal for everyone else in that niche to marry-up or blow away. That's the way business works. First you have innovation, then rampant competition, and the first take-out by a giant starts the consolidation phase.

Instead, the last two years have seen a host of great new blogging tools emerge. WordPress is powerful. Movable Type leads the field. Microsoft rolled its own rather than buying anyone. We have specialized tools for audio blogging, mobile blogging, photo blogging and video blogging.

That's not consolidation. It's just the opposite.

The reason is that instead of moving up the food chain by taking on new niches and growing in complexity (Blogger's interest in video blogging seems driven by co-founder Larry Page), Blogger has emphasized simplicity. It doesn't even have its own unique business model -- Google's AdSense works with any blog tool.

When that happens in a normal company, you look to the person at the top. I'd been blaming Evan Williams so long over this I didn't even notice when he left. It's his former biz dev guy, Jason Shellen (left), I should be disappointed in.

Shellen's last known title is Blogger Program Manager for Google. Does this mean he runs the joint? Does anyone else?

Maybe.

Right now the only person with Blogger in their portfolio among Google's top executives is Jonathan Rosenberg (right), listed as vice president-product management.

Rosenberg was previously a senior vice president with Excite@Home, and was "a founding member of @Home's product group." Before that he was with Apple's eWorld and before that Knight Ridder Information Services (Dialog).

This is not the kind of record that inspires confidence from me. It's like the sea captain who says he's been on a lot of big ships, then you notice they all hit icebergs. Entrepreneurial? Imaginative? Successful? You think so? I don't.

Of course, sometimes we can be wrong about such things. When the Yankees hired Casey Stengel he was considered a joke, a long-winded long-time loser with the Braves and Dodgers. He won 10 pennants in 12 years. Is Rosenberg another Casey Stengel?

No, I would assert that Blogger has gotten lost inside Google. No matter how wise or wonderful Rosenberg might be, he has other things on his plate, from Gmail to Orkut to "personalized services" (which I assume includes Google Desktop and Google Toolbar.)

My point about RSS was also quite simple. Despite all its cash and technical know-how Google has yet to exploit it. We don't have a blog search tool, to this day, with the simplicity of Google, or even Google News, and I ask, again, why not? Orkut just began supporting RSS feeds in March.

None of this matters when everyone is making money hand over fist. Assuming Williams was wise and kept his Google stock after the merger, and is smart enough to sell before its price falls, he could be the Mark Cuban of our time. (I doubt Ev would mind that.) He can buy me, sell me, bury me and ignore me 100 times over. Why should he listen to me? Why should anyone?

Maybe because I'm usually right. I warned against the dot-bust in 1996. I was warning of the copyright wars in 1997. I've been writing about wireless Internet applications since the century's turn. I may be a bit ahead of the curve with my calls, I may be off on the bleeding edge of what's coming, but I generally turn out to be correct over time.

This boom, too, will bust. This time, too, will pass. And when it does someone will ask the question, why didn't Google do more with Blogger and its other acquisitions?

I just asked first. And because I rushed, because I asked badly, no one else will ask until it's too late.

Save this for when they do.