We're in the midst of a transition. Mobile phones are becoming integrated with the rest of the computing world. (Crystal ball courtesy this great site on psychic phenomena, reminding all of the need for skepticism.)

It's the best of times. It's the worst of times.

It's a time of exciting new products. It's also a time of wholesale confusion.

Mainly it's a time when network owners are trying to re-do history, to "get the Internet right," in a way that benefits them, to give vendors control over what people do with their technology.

That effort is doomed. We care no more for Little Brother, in the end, than Big Brother. The Internet didn't win-out over proprietary networks by chance. It was by design. Pass the bits and worry about the money later. Keep the inside as dumb as possible. Let the market sort it all out.

That was then. This is now. So what happens next?

• You are going to have to get anti-virals and anti-spam tools on your phone next year. The question is whether you will buy this as software, from a company like F-Secure, or as a service from your carrier. Certainly it's in the software vendors' interests to "keep up the scare" on threats (which so far don't come in through regular phone calls), but in the long run this is going to be the carriers' market, because it's going to be their responsibility.
• Today's newest smartphones are seen as PDA replacements. Making them into PC replacements will mean keeping more data on servers. The smart, cheap way to do this will be to use your home PC as a server, leaving it on while you're on the road, and consulting with it through your mobile. This is not the way carriers are going to sell it, of course.
• Hotspots are going to morph into "hot zones," integrated networks that work across the Airport, the Mall, the office complex. A lot of people today think this means toll booths everywhere, connectivity for the classes and nothing for the masses. But the cost of providing this service continues to go down -- either profits explode or prices drop to the floor. Wherever competition exists, expect falling prices.
• Competition will become the business value most worthy of protection, and the one most under threat. Real estate owners will decide they have the right to own 802.11 (they don't), and cities will consider this a franchise right they can sell (or their friends can steal). Where this succeeds places will become uncompetitive, surprisingly quickly. In the end it won't succeed anywhere.
• 2005 will become a year of devices, because we don't really know what the market wants from mobility. By 2007, we'll have a clearer idea of what you want (probably everything) so you will see more valuable, combined, integrated devices.
• Always-On will happen first through the cellular network. I once thought it would happen in the wireless LAN world, but the applications are coming out quickly (especially the medical ones) and they don't need as much bandwidth as I anticipated. Grandpa's going to get UnderArmor next Christmas, with some pleasant surprises woven into the fabric.