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Moore's Lore

November 10, 2004
The Chinese Century VIIIEmail This EntryPrint This Entry
Posted by Dana

NOTE: This is part of a continuing online novel. For those who are new to the work, you can reach the Table Of Contents here.



The answer to Greenspan's question was that Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui was, like him, on the phone.

With New York. With George Soros.

Fukui, a modest man appointed to his job by Prime Minister Koizumi a year before, liked to hear what market players were saying, even if he seldom took action.

This time, however, action had been called for. Japan owned even more U.S. debt than China. As the value of that paper fell, and as the value of the dollar fell, Japan was hit doubly. Almost as soon as the prices changed, Japan began acting in line with the market.

Now Soros was praising that action, explaining that while the short-term profits from training would not offset the large-scale losses it had in the assets, it was still a wise hedge. Fukui liked the English term hedge. It reminded him of his own garden back in Osaka, his beloved home town.

Upon hanging up on Soros, Fukui decided it would be wise for Japan to hedge a bit more. After all, if the market went against his hedge, the dollars he held would be rising in value to offset it.

Soros had been making and placing these kinds of calls for several days. He explained to big investors that, while this might be a short-term phenomenon, it could be a very profitable one so long as they took profits out even as they kept selling the dollar and encouraging others to do the same. By the time the market turned they would mostly be out, with plenty of profits laid aside to protect against any losses from a snap-back.

Between calls Soros chuckled to himself. This was turning out almost as well as a Kerry victory would have, although he certainly would have preferred the latter. But he was wealthier, his clients were wealthier, and the volume was healthier for all the new action. For the first time in many years he was "jazzed" by business.

At exactly noon Greenspan walked down to the Fed's boardroom. A few aides occupied seats around the large table. Nearly everyone would be coming in via videophone, each speaker's face appearing on the far wall as he spoke.

In a calm, soothing tone, Greenspan appraised his governors of his actions, got their assent to stay the course, and discussed with them the ramifications of the dollar's fall and what was happening with market interest rates.

"With all due respect, Mr. Chairman, the current situation is really unprecedented," said Donald Kohn, who like his fellows had been caught off-guard by the chairman's meeting call a few hours before. "We now have a prime rate of 4.75, against market interest rates of 4.77. Our banks can't do business when the money they buy costs more than the price paid by their best customers. Lending has dried up, surcharges are being added to contracts, and the actual prime is becoming a joke. The true rate, the market prime, is now closer to 6%. Credit cards are being cancelled, home loans are being called or re-negotiated, people are starting to get really worried here. Certainly a rise in the prime of, say, a half-point could calm that activity."

"But Mr. Kohn," said Roger Ferguson, a youngish (by Fed standards) 53 year old appointed by President Clinton, "a sudden rise in the prime would spook the markets and make permanent a speculative bubble. We all know it's speculation driving the price, that the underlying value of the dollar remains unchanged. If we just hold to that the bubble will inevitably burst, perhaps within days, and all those papers will be put away."

"Perhaps a statement, approving of banks' temporary measures but reassuring the market the prime will stand, would be helpful," added Governor Susan Schmidt Bies. As the only female governor she often found herself in a conciliatory role.

While Bies spoke, an aide nudged Greenspan, who nodded his head and waved a hand. "Perhaps it would be best if we brought some more wisdom into the room. I've been told that the chairman of the People's Bank of China, and his translator, are on the phone. With your permission I'd like to put them on the speaker.

"Go ahead, Mr. Chairman."

A woman's voice, that of a translator, came on with Governor Zhou Xiaochuan beside her.

"Greetings, Mr. Chairman."

"Greetings to you, Governor Zhou. How can we help you today?"

"I would like to do that, very much," said the translator. "We have been asked to trade dollars, but in the name of market stability I have the honor to speak with you today."

Greenspan tried a gambit. "We are honored to talk with you. When last we checked, some weeks ago, we understood your Bank to have approximately $795 billion on-hand, mostly in our government bonds."

"That is approximately correct." About right.

"How are you doing today? Could we interest you in some dollars?" Greenspan's voice held a chuckle, his eyes a twinkle.

"No, thank you, sir. But to answer your question, we currently have about $750 billion. Many millions of Chinese did diversify into dollars when the Renminbi began to float, and we have been happy to buy those dollars. But our government insists we sell, that we keep selling, and this is not good for market stability."

Greenspan thought for a moment. Zhou had given away his poker hand, and he couldn't come close to matching the cards he'd shown. "What rate will you take?" he asked tentatively.

"Market rate." The answer came back quickly. Greenspan had meant it as a joke. The figure he quoted was nearly twice the President's requested military budget for the full year, nearly half the nation's total budget. Worse, Zhou was asking for Yuan, 250 trillion Yuan. He wondered if there were that many Yuan in the world.

"I checked my wallet and I'm afraid that's more than I have on me." Greenspan laughed as proof he was joking.

There was silence on the other end.

"Let me try another term on you. Soft landing," said Greenspan.

This time he did get a chuckle from Zhou. Zhou had used the term himself a few months before, in a speech to the IMF. He had also raised domestic interest rates to keep the economy from overheating, just as Greenspan would.

"We have a saying here, Mr. Chairman, WWAD," said the translator. "What Would Alan Do. We do try to moderate economic turbulence. We do aim for stability.

"But what we have currently is a question of politics, not economics. The answers we seek lie in your White House."

"What would those answers be?" Greenspan asked. He really hadn't thought about it.

"Peace," said Zhou Xiaochuan himself, in English. "You may quote me on that."

And with that Zhou hung up.


Category: fiction


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