Microsoft is out of ideas. (I liked this cartoon of Chairman Bill, from Hawaiian cartoonist John Pritchett.)
Microsoft spent the last year exploring lots of big business ideas. I even pitched Always-On to some Microsoft executives. In the end the company decided it had no worthwhile idea, so it's giving its profit back to shareholders.
Microsoft brings in $1 billion worth of free cash every month, and has set a $75 billion pay-out plan, including $30 billion in share buybacks. This is all in an effort to raise its stagnant stock price.
The result will be a higher price, but I guarantee you it will also mean a lower price-earnings ratio. Microsoft has decided to become a widows-and-orphans stock because it can't see any worthwhile way to invest its profits.
Be afraid. Be very afraid. Because if Microsoft, with all the money in the world, can't thnk of anything better to do with its money than give it away, what does that say for the rest of us? What does it say for the technology business climate?
As a Mac user, I'm all for MS running out of ideas.
As creative director of the ad agency for three financial firms, I kinda like MS leading the market back to sanity with lower P/Es. Despite watching the market for more than ten years now, I have yet to invest in a new-economy stock other than Apple because there's very little historical evidence that these P/Es are sustainable over the very long term -- hence there's always the danger of yet another bubble burst. I'd much rather see MS lead us to a more gradual return to sustainable ratios.
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