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October 10, 2003
Buzz & Social Networks
Posted by Ross Mayfield
Virginia Postrel writes about
Buzz, conversations about preference within social networks, pointing to a study
The Influence of Social Networks on the Effectiveness of Promotional Strategies and the work of Yale's Dina Mayzlin and Harvard's David Godes. The research tracked memes in Usenet discussion groups during 1999-2000 and how they effected TV ratings with some interesting conclusions:
First, they discovered that online conversations did help predict which shows would succeed a somewhat surprising result in itself. Usenet participants are not necessarily typical TV viewers.
The Usenet discussions may have directly influenced new shows' reputations or, perhaps more likely, the online comments may have reflected offline conversations. (Negative comments were relatively rare; three-quarters of the postings in a subsample were either positive or mixed.) In either case, this result suggests that marketers can tap Internet forums to see how their products might fare.
Second, the study found that how much buzz a show gets does not predict much about how it will do. Who's talking matters more than how much they talk.
Jeff Jarvis builds upon this to make the point that its not how large blogspace is, but:
First, bloggers capture buzz...Second, bloggers are influencers talking to influencers...Finally, bloggers will create buzz.
The paper, a great read on promotion and memetics, specifically explores linear network structures (lattices, paths or chains) and where to employ agents to promote a message. These granular network elements of a unidirectional paths, bidirectional paths and bidirectional circles are essential building blocks that are easier to analyze.
Small world networks that follow a power-law distribution are not part of the study, but ironically mass advertising is contrasted as an investment option. When the promotion decision is binary between mass and buzz, mass out performs. But when both methods are employed, buzz yields greater influence. Mass diffusion provides context for a decision, buzz diffusion enables it.
I say ironic because the more connected nodes, especially in blogspace, are more like mass than buzz. Its interesting that within the granular paths a meme can take who you influence matters, and it shouldn't suprise people that information travels faster within these strong ties. Hubs are obvious targets for diffusion, Sarnoff's law prevails, but the weak ties the message passes can at best provide context for influence. A strategy of
influence would then address both the peak and the skinny tail of the power-law distribution.
UPDATE:
Kevin Buzzes about
Nokia's buzz project
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1. Alex Gault on October 10, 2003 1:48 PM writes...
Ross,
A related phenomena:
Pro-active customer support via social networks.
Case in point:
In July, Mitch Kapor posted a blog entry looking for guidance on how to take full advantage of his Nokia 3650 cell phone. After 4 or 5 comments, a customer support person from ATT (Mitch's wireless provider), joined the conversation. Clearly ATT must be encouraging support personnel to monitor online communication that pertains to their services.
I just purchased the Nokia 3650 myself, and came across this entry looking for the same information as Mitch. Ultimately, the conversation on his blog was far more useful to me than the online support section on ATT's website.
Here's the Kapor link:
http://blogs.osafoundation.org/mitch/000293.html
Alex Gault
Permalink to Comment2. andrew on October 10, 2003 3:21 PM writes...
"First, bloggers capture buzz; Second, bloggers are influencers talking to influencers; Finally, bloggers will create buzz."
Let's keep our egos at a reasonable level here. Most bloggers are not influencers, although some popular ones surely are. The average blogger probably contributes to "buzz" by making connections. The buildup of links is what both spreads and legitimizes influence.
As to the blanket statement "bloggers will create buzz", it should be obvious that there are many many conversations involving many bloggers that never spill over into generalized buzz. We might be impressed that websites or blogs help create the buzz around a movie (for example), but no more often or more effectively then more "traditional" buzz-making processes; we're still impressed by the novelty of memes spreading through websites.
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