Loose Democracy
January 30, 2004

Block that Meme #2: Dean and WebVan

"The Dean campaign is the WebVan of politics," two people have told me in the past 24 hours. If by "is" you mean "is profoundly different from," then I agree.

WebVan gained momentum not because there was demand for it but because a huge top-down investment — an initial $400M from private investors (10x the investment in the Dean campaign, btw) — made it look like a good idea. The Dean campaign, on the other hand, gained momentum because there was genuine, bottom-up demand: People stood outside holding signs, flocked to late night rallies on frozen tarmac, donated 75 bucks each, went door to door, hosted parties to write letters to other citizens. WebVan could only have wished for such demand!

The comparison isn't merely wrong but, I believe, intends to trivialize the Dean campaign. WebVan was about making shopping more convenient. The Dean campaign is about reconstructing a democracy currently ceded to the incumbent powers. WebVan's failure left some people much poorer (and a few people much richer). If the Dean campaign fails, it will leave a different sort of legacy: a loosely-knit, ardent network eager to continue the work.

So, sure, there are points of comparison between the Dean campaign and dot coms such as WebVan: The seething of ideas, the willingness to experiment, the hope, even a measure of admirable foolishness. And, in a superficial way, if Dean fails it will be because there wasn't enough demand for "the product" — in politics, if you don't get more than half the "market," you're toast. But the failure of everything from marriages to literary careers can be chalked up to lack of demand. That superficial point of similarity should not be allowed to obscure the very real differences: The Dean campaign was driven by fervent, bottom-up demand while WebVan's momentum came from a few rich investors.


For a thoughtful and entertaining argument that the Dean campaign indeed was like a dot com in the bubble, see Seth Finkelstein.

Posted at 7:45 AM | Email this entry | Category: Dean campaign
  Comments and Trackbacks (http://www.corante.com/cgi-bin/mt/mt-tb.cgi/1069)

It would be interesting to explore how true is the statement "If the Dean campaign fails, it will leave a different sort of legacy: a loosely-knit, ardent network eager to continue the work."

Is the network around Dean transferrable to another candidate? Is the characteristics of the network an anamoly due to events that incensed the activists? Is it a uniquely American model?

So far this blog has tried vainly to stop the negative memes around the efficacy of social software in this political campaign. I'd be appreciative of some fresh thinking about the positive lessons we can take away from this (if any) and not just in the narrow context of the current US Presidential Campaign.

Posted by Seyed Razavi on January 30, 2004 09:23 AM | Permalink to Comment

Dave

Given your sense of humor (and sense of WMDs), I thought you might enjoy this post from Steve Verdon (http://www.steveverdon.com/archives/2004_01.html#001039)

"For months and months we've been hearing about Dean's Web-based Monetary Donations programs. We were told that his WMD capability was extremely advanced, and was both an imminent threat to his neighboring Democrat candidates and a gathering threat to Republicans in the near future.

After the battles in Iowa and New Hampshire, we discover that Dean's WMD programs isn't nearly as spectacular as we've been led to believe.

It's enough to make one wonder whether Dean actually had any WMDs in the first place. Maybe it was part of a strategy to frighten his opponents into capitulating, or perhaps his subordinates misled Dr. Dean as to the extent of his WMD capability. Either way, it's a terrible failure of the media's intelligence gathering methods. We need a congressional investigation to get to the bottom of this."

Posted by Mike Sanders on January 30, 2004 10:21 AM | Permalink to Comment

This comparison and Clay's remarks are entirely unfair and wrongheaded. The Dean campaign was NOT an impotent example of mental masturbation.

Posted by John Robb on January 30, 2004 11:17 AM | Permalink to Comment

I compared Dean to Webvan on Chris Lydon's radio blogapalooza on Sunday night, and I wish I had chosen another company to make my point.

I can't speak for the other people who made the comparision, but my intent was not to trivialize the Dean campaign.

Intended meaning of said comparison: that two campaigns involving significant amounts of Internet technology, and hype, and money, had "products" that some critical percentage of the market weren't ready to buy.

Did not mean to compare specifics of their business models...although some of the questions following Trippi's departure may show that high costs were a problem at both organizations.

I know that Webvan has a certain odor about it, and in the future I would choose a different company as an example.

Dean may not be done, but if and when he is, his campaign will not be remembered as a grandiose flop like Webvan.

What I'm trying to say is this: the collapse of Internet stock mania didn't mean that online retailing was a bad idea, and the loss of momentum and possible defeat of the Dean campaign doesn't mean that online campaigning, including many of the tactics used by Dean, will now go away.

Posted by ed cone on January 30, 2004 11:25 AM | Permalink to Comment

Thanks for the clarification, Ed. I had actually forgotten that you were one of the people I'd heard it from; had I remembered, I wouldn't have imputed the trivialization motive. I backfilled my memory hole inappropriately.

I'd say it won't happen again, but I'm sure that it will.

Posted by David Weinberger on January 30, 2004 12:30 PM | Permalink to Comment

This is just marvie, more intellectual eight ball playing. Chalk up! Cues at the ready! Fight, fight, fight. Go dot.com go! (Oh? A political election of some sort? Terribly sorry.)

Posted by Steve on January 30, 2004 01:03 PM | Permalink to Comment

I think all of the folks on the Internet have to ask this question:

Are we willing to let the Dean candidacy die because a "hot" candidate from the "hot" medium of the Internet is having trouble translating to the "cool" medium of the networks.

Organizing using the Internet has been wonderful for raising money. Regardless of his problems in Iowa and New Hampshire, Dean has continued to be able to raise big money from the Net.

Now, the "netizens" need to get together with the "Deaniacs" to determine how a TRUE Internet campaign would work.

To my mind, the thing to do is to identify ALL of the "netizens" in a contested state who are Internet users and organize those who can be convinced, converted, etc. Then, once a strong core is in place all over that state, get each Internet supporter to find five of his/her friends who AREN'T netizens.

I think this is where we Deaniacs have fallen down: effectively using the Internet WITHIN the states where we are campaigning.

I'm betting that the real "hackers" could come up with software that would identify people with Internet connections by state and allow individuals to contact them much the same way the Deaniacs are writing letters to voters in selected states. I know there are spamming issues here but I am sure that the folks who read this blog are smart enough to figure out a way to do this without creating spam.

The bottom line is this: the contest isn't over. If the Internet activists who know they have a stake in the success of the Dean candidacy take a hand in re-organizing the efforts to get Dean elected, there is still a chance for Dr. Dean to make a stunning comeback.

Posted by Hank Prohm on January 30, 2004 07:42 PM | Permalink to Comment
The Dean Synopsis

Excerpt: Dean with campaign adviser Joe Trippi construct the first internet, weblog, cellphone, Ipod, digital march to the White House. Money flows into the campaign like water over Niagra Falls. Trippi is hailed as a genius for planting more grassroot...

Read the rest...

Trackback from Cranial Cavity, Jan 30, 2004 8:46 PM
The Hot and the Cool Medium

Excerpt: From a comment ( by a fellow named Hank Prohm) on David Weinberger's article, Loose Democracy on Corante: I think all of the folks on the Internet have to ask this question: Are we willing to let the Dean candidacy...

Read the rest...

Trackback from Movable Theoblogical, Jan 31, 2004 12:56 PM

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