Steve Gillmor is sharpening his old, old ax: Office is Dead, he says, long live... what, exactly?
[from � Now that we've got your attention | Steve Gillmor's InfoRouter | ZDNet.com]
I was in a conversation last night where the subject turned to Office and whether it's dead or not. You know, the good old Notes is Dead micromeme that I pushed out into the world way back when Ray Ozzie was not the Prince of Redmond. Back before Ray rewrote the Microsoft playbook to stand at the doorway of attention. Back before Bill Gates told the Indian subcontinent that maybe just maybe it was time to cut a deal with–yes, us. Free stuff for attention. And what free stuff might that be? Credits for software! And what software might that be? ooh ooh I know… pick me, pick me.
Office. The Wall Street wisdom is that Google is a media company, their business model is advertising, and they have no business or gain in undermining Office. Right. Gmail, Gtalk, Gcal, Gbase, Gdesk. If you believe that, I've got a Gbridge to sell you.
OK, so of course Google is building the new microOffice. And this gives Ray the opening he needs to neutralize all the heavy hitters back at the ranch. Surely Ray remembered the moment at Web 2.0 when someone asked how many people had Gmail accounts and 80% of the room went up. Who are those hands? Thought leaders, influencers, enthusiasts, PR, media, so-called early adopters. And what did they pay for the right to use the software? No, not nothing. Their attention.
So if the war is already over, then what more does Microsoft have to lose? Only time. Time in which to make the switch to services. But can they just clone search and win share? Entropy rules.
He is characterizing this as a war with two belligerents: Microsoft and Google. And Scoble doesn't seem to argue about the card, settling for a recitation of the stuff that is cool in Office:
[from Scobleizer - Microsoft Geek Blogger � 837 words about how Office is dead (from Steve Gillmor)
But, Office still has some kick left in it. I’ve been using Office 12 for the past few days and, I can’t go back. The Excel pivot table feature alone is worth paying hundreds of dollars. Alone.
And tables are finally really cool. PowerPoint is actually something I’ll use again. Creating a chart there is sure a lot nicer than I’ve been able to do on any Web site.
Steve also hasn’t been paying attention to our secret weapon: workflow. Try to stick that in your Linux server and smoke it!
And now I see there’s new extensibility in OneNote 12.
I’m a card-carrying member of the Web 2.0 Working Group, but there isn’t anything as cool as OneNote coming out yet. Sorry. Not even close.
**Ray Ozzie slaps Scoble**
Oh, Ray, knock it off! We all know Gillmor’s favorite toy is Groove. We’re keeping that hidden away here until we need to use that to get Steve to attend another conference. Why? Cause it’s always fun arguing with Steve about whether or not Office is dead. Hell, according to my Word Counter (in the dead Office 2003) we just killed another 258 words doing just that. Heheh.
I think the metaphor of the Office is dead, although the inside-the-walls, enterprise-centric value proposition of Microsoft Office still will find its adherents in the corporate sphere.
But the dominance of Microsoft on the "desktop" (another office metaphor) is over, done, finito. Microsoft Word is being deposed by various RTF and PDF spewing document tools (like Writely and innumerable others) where there is no "document" on your harddrive, but instead a shared space that feels like a memo, or an invoice, or an expense report. [By the way, how come no one has developed a Web 2.0 expense reporting app?]
There are a few niches where the superiority of Microsoft Office tools has not been overcome by the value of collaborative, social architecture:
- Excel: Yes, no one has developed a web-based solution to replace the venerable spreadsheet. Although I bet there are a clutch of start-ups out there working on it.
- One Note: it is a cool tool, because it breaks the Windows "desktop" paradigm of folder and documents, and replaces it with a webbish collection of pages and links: sort of a mini-web, or a wysiwyg wiki on your PC. Very cool. If fact, I recommend that Microsoft built a web version of it ASAP.
- Powerpoint: I am over PPT. I am temporarily happy with Keynote, but expect that web-based presentation systems -- perhaps with a small client for display -- will put an end to the PPT dominance in this sector. Especially since sharing of decks is central to the whole idea of presentation. [I envision a new dynamic, where online presentation systems allow you to edit and share presentations, incorporating materials from other web apps -- Google Maps, Flickr, AudioBlog, etc. -- and also to support real-time webcasting integrated with low-cost VoIP telephony for a much needed revolution. Watch out Webex!]
Google may in fact be the source of many of these tools, or the acquirier of them, at any rate. But I expect that we will see a widespread explosion of new approaches, and not just a knocking off of the core 20% ot Office apps functionality in web apps. And in this setting, we will see the displacement of models of use, not just a shift to the web.
Basecamp is a drastically different metaphor for project management, and has displaced the Microsoft Project model. Its a social media model, based on communication and coordination rather than micro-analytical management of time and resources. Basecamp is the product a small startup, 37 Signals, not Google or any other giant competitor of Microsoft.
So, while I believe that Microsoft and Google are in deadly conflict for the well-defined battlezones like email, blogging, browsers, and the like, in the area of social tools we should look to small innovators to upset the Office metaphor, with tightly focused and easily used web apps that do specific things well. That's why I expect an expense reporting app (perhaps one similar the the way Blinksale works for invoices) to come out and become widely used before seeing a complete and general spreadsheet tool.
tags:
steve+gillmor,
ray+ozzie,
robert+scoble,
microsoft+office,
basecamp,
37+signals,
blinksale,
powerpoint,
excel,
writely,
google
1. Michael McDerment on December 15, 2005 12:45 PM writes...
Have you seen what I Cringely has to say about the software landscape?
"And unless Google comes up with an ecosystem to allow their survival, that means all the other web services companies will be marginalized. There will be startups and little guys, but no medium-sized companies."
http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/pulpit20051117.html
I think this is really interesting. As the founder of a web services company that competes with Intuit Quickbooks (and Blinksale for that matter), I'd like to believe this, and the fact is I can because we (like Basecamp and Blinksale) are living it.
The more people turn to the web, the less desktop software they will buy. The incumbent desktop software providers, Microsoft, Intuit, etc, have relied on costly distribution models and established reseller networks as competitive advantages. For example, when you go to Best Buy, how many accounting packages can you buy?
Online, more and more offerings are available everyday and the landscape is becoming wider and wider. This is going to make it really hard for the incumbents to leverage their distribution models as a competitive advantage. Influencers are no longer only large retail chains and resellers, they are blogs and communities, etc. You have to stack up across a whole sea of product feedback. Most people go to a few providers' websites before purchasing....you can't do that at Best Buy...and when you search online your next competitor/negative review/angry customer's thoughts are always just a click away. This is one reason I think service matters a lot these days.
The web as a PLATFORM and a DISTRIBUTION model has real implications for the market. Giddyup.
Michael McDerment
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