Andrew Anker at VentureBlog suggests in Accelerating Acceleration that technology adoption life cycles are compressing. Alex Pang at FutureBlog summarizes the points:
-The product uptake curve is accelerating
-The laggard market is disappearing
-New products will either open big or get killed early
-It's not about technology any more
-Early adopters will become a big enough group to serve on their own
Although I agree that that this may be happening in information technology related products and services (Andrew's examples are specifically consumer electronics -- DVD players, movies, Internet usage, Tivo), it is far from any general acceleration across all markets.
Just spend a minute with Derek Lowe as he discusses the continuing difficulties facing the pharmaceutical industry to see how technology adoption and diffusion is not accelerating everywhere. Instead, we are observing what economist Brian Arthur described as the coming information technology build-out.
By taking a broader historical view, as developed by Carlota Perez in her seminal work, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital, we can see that we are nearing the fourth and final stage of the information technology wave. Indeed, it is by taking this longer term perspective that it is possible to see that within the next decade we'll be entering the neurotechnology wave, where NBIC technologies will converge creating entirely new markets with many of the same old adoption life cycle attributes.
The Department of Health and Human Services recently announced additional funding for the neurotechnology research, development and enhancement program.
As I have written previously, neurotechnology is being driven by the convergence of advances in Nanotechnology, Information Technology, Biotechnology and Cognitive Science (NBIC -- pronounced N-bic). Mike Roco, the man who has spear headed the National Nanotechnology Initiative over the past decade, is now targeting the NSF's attention on creating a similiar initiative to understand how NBIC technologies will create new tools to enhance human performance.
I have grouped the examples used in the Neurotechnology Program Announcement into their respective technology sector to show that all four of these areas are required for neurotechnology to fully develop. I have also tried to find links to relatively close examples of each technology for those who wish dive deeper. (Many of these technologies could fall into multiple categories. For example, drug delivery systems are likely to require nanobiotechnology for significant breakthroughs to emerge.)
Neurotechnology Program Research Objectives
This program seeks to enable neuroscience and behavioral research by soliciting research and development of novel tools and approaches for the study of the development, structure, and function of the brain. Technologies that are appropriate include: hardware, software, and wetware (and combinations of thereof) that would be used to study the brain or behavior in basic or clinical research.
Nanotechnology
1. Nanocrystals or quantum dots covalently bonded to neural receptor ligands
2. Microfluidic systems for in-vivo spatial and temporal delivery of biomolecules
3. Microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) used for monitoring neurons
4. Nanoelectromechanical systems (NEMS) used for monitoring neurons
5. Amplifiers for mice to record neural activity from many neurons
6. Non-invasive optical imaging instruments
7. Tools for detection of acute neurological events
8. Improved electrodes, microcomputer interfaces, and microcircuitry
Information Technology
1. Software to translate neuroimaging data from one data format into another
2. Algorithms for understanding human neuroimaging data
3. Tools for real-time analysis of neurophysiological events
4. Dynamic monitors of intracranial pressure and spinal fluid composition
5. Devices for non-invasive diagnosis and precise identification of pathogens
6. Tools, technologies and algorithms for neuroprosthesis development
7. Non-invasive tools to assess damage, monitor function in brain tissue
8. Tools for data mining into genomics and proteomics of the nervous system
Biotechnology
1. Proteome analysis arrays, proteome data storage, analysis of proteome data
2. Genetic approaches to study structure or function of neural circuits in animals
3. Biosensors that would be selectively activated by neurochemicals
4. Delivery systems for drugs, gene transfer vectors, and cells
5. Probes of brain gene expression that can be imaged non-invasively
6. Genetic approaches to manipulate or monitor synaptic activity
7. Tools for intervention and prevention of acute neurological events
Cognitive Science
1. Non-invasive methods for in-vivo tracking of implanted cells
2. Tools to enhance visualization of specific brain markers
3. New methods to study neural connectivity in living or post mortem brain,
4. Tools for early-warning detection of imminent seizure activity
5. Methods to facilitate high-throughput analysis of behavior
6. Tools for therapeutic electrical stimulation for rehabilitation
Just as previous techno-economic waves have been driven by the convergence of multiple technologies from different sectors, so too will the neurotechnology wave. To understand how our emerging neurosociety may take shape, it is critical to understand how the NBIC convergence will drive the neurotechnology wave.
All thoughts and comments welcome. If there is a request I will start a NBIC wiki for those who are interested.
Earlier this year John Brockman amassed 100 of America's leading scientific thinkers to answer this question hypothetically asked by President Bush:
"What are the pressing scientific issues for the nation and the world, and what is your advice on how I can begin to deal with them?"
Insightful responses covered topics from global bioterrorism to increased funding for science education, but none addressed the issue that I believe will impact humanity most in the coming decades. While a few people like Nobel Laureate Eric Kandel, Mary Catherine Bateson, Steven Pinker and Steven Quartz pointed in the right direction, the remaining gap motivated me to send the following letter to the President.
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Dear Mr. President:
Emotions drive human society. Fear and anger easily bumping conscious thoughts out of our awareness, while wishing that anxiety or depression would go away just doesn’t work.
Advances in brain science and biotechnology will soon change this reality by making it possible for individuals to significantly control their mental health. With an initial focus on reducing the severity of mental illnesses, the same technology will also make it possible for each individual to enhance cognitive clarity, emotional control and extend their senses.
When people begin to influence their emotions, how will this impact corporate innovation, political opinion and personal relationships? When individuals can enhance memory recall and accelerate adult learning, how will this change the basis of competitive advantage? As it becomes possible to safely extend our senses of sight, hearing and taste, what will this mean for artistic exploration and entertainment?
Just as the wheel, steam engine and electricity shaped the course of civilization -- the emerging tools of neurotechnology will create new industries, new forms of political organization and new modes of artistic expression.
Neurotechnology's ability to temporarily influence an individual's mental health will have more profound implications for humanity, in a much nearer time frame, than genetic engineering for several reasons:
In fact, as neurotechnology develops it may turn out that in a majority of situations humans will choose neurotechnology instead of genetic engineering to combat disease and enhance themselves because of the versatility it offers.
The policy implications of neurotechnology's emergence include:
Neurotechnology's capacity to allow individuals to influence their emotional, cognitive and sensory states represents the most transformative force that human society will experience in the next 25 years. This reality should be reflected throughout your administration's agenda.
Sincerely,
Zack Lynch
It turns out that the tongue is the ideal interface through which to obtain additional information about the environment.
U.S Navy Seals are currently in the exploration phase of testing a device that will help them "see" in soupy-water environments. The plastic oral retainer device is connected to a infrared camera that transmits information to the tongue via 100 different microscopic metal points. This seems to be enough information to be able to navigate successfully in a 3-D environment.
Unlike every other part of the body the tongue has no dead layers of skin, the saliva conducts electricity well, requiring only 3% of the voltage of normal skin. According to one prototype user, "it feels like pop rocks candy."