Andrew Odlyzko has a new paper, and as usual it's a must-read.

in telecommunications, the trend in general has been towards increasing simplicity. On the other hand, in transportation we find many instances of increasing sophistication in pricing, and almost a general principle of charging according to the value of the goods being moved (and thus without the end-to-end principle and without privacy). Thus those arguing for a new architecture for the Internet that would limit its opennes and ability to innovate do have numerous historical precedents on their side...
Open networks not only allow for greater innovation, but are more consistent with the likely evolution of telecommunications, towards a variety of technologies providing an interoperable network unified by the Internet Protocol, and with costs concentrated at the edges. They are also far more consistent with the nature of the demand for telecommunications. Hence it appears that there are good prospects for the preservation of an open architecture, although this is not a foregone conclusion.

But later on, Odlyzko writes,

A key distinction between the Internet and the transportation systems discussed earlier is that in transport, most of the costs were associated with the core of the network. On the Internet, on the other hand, the complexity, costs, and therefore revenue opportunities are largely at the edges.

I think that this is crucial. Relative to the total value of what goes over the Internet, content provided by Big Media is a relatively trivial portion. That tail is not going to wag the dog in terms of architecture and pricing, at least without really strong government help. If the government stays neutral, or even just stays clumsy and inept in its attempts at regulation, I think that Internet architecture is safe.

En passant, Odlyzko writes

the main incentive for VoIP comes from the ability to get out of the elaborate maze of cross-subsidies, discriminatory pricing policies, and taxes that are built into the current telecom system. The question is whether the telecom industry can survive in the broadband era without another maze of cross-subsidies, discriminatory pricing policies, and taxes.

Interesting point--that there is regulatory arbitrage involved in VoIP, because they don't have to deal in all the universal service fees and other garbage.

As usual with Odlyzko, read the whole thing.